St. Croix Realtors Joe & Julie San Martin

August 2017

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by more than 3 years, to an 11 month supply of homes and a 1 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price has increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased by 5% over the five year period, from $575,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $602,086 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a significant average sale price decrease of 22% ($83,895), from $382,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $298,605 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by about 3 years, to a 1.6 year supply of homes and a 1.8 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price decreased, compared to five years ago. For condominiums, the average sale price increased by about $4,000.

Average home sale price decreased by 7% ($82,209) over the five year period, from $481,712 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $399,503 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 2% increase in average sales price, from $204,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $208,333 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by nearly 3 years, to just a 1 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the inventory sell off was even more dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units to just 8 months! There were 52 condominium sales in Company Quarter in the past 12 months; extraordinary when you consider there are currently only 79 condominiums for sale on St Croix!

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 86% over the five year period, from $191,269 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $356,306 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 43% increase in average sales price, from $106,250 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $152,223 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased only slightly, to a 2.6 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 8 years to a six month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price decreased 16% ($38,118), compared to four years ago, from $291,289 to $253,171 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums not only saw a big decrease in inventory, the average sales price increased 48% ($36,140), from $75,125 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $111,265 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by more than 3 years, to a 1.4 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 6 years to an eleven month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago. For condominiums, the average sales price decreased.

Average home sale price increased 38% ($176,596) over the five year period, from $459,110 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $635,706 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 29% decrease ($100,143) in average sales price, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $244,857 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Located near the closed refinery, this is the worst performing segment of our market.

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Home inventory increased to a 5 year supply of homes, compared to five years ago. For the 12 months ending July 2013, only one home sold in King Quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased 24% ($50,800) over the five year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $156,600 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by nearly 4 years, to a 2 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by 9 years, to a 2 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a modest price increase, condominiums experienced a dramatic average price decrease, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 9% ($19,528) over the five year period, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $227,958 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 62% ($257,667) decrease in average sales price, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $157,333 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by 2.4 years, to a 2.2 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the supply decreased by 4.5 years, to a 2.5 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 15% ($24,315) over the five year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $188,615 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 177% increase in average sales price, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $173,125 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Over the six year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·         Northside A & B

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Company

Over the six year period, average condominium sale prices decreased or remained little changed except for these quarters:

·         West End

·         Company

·         Queen

Both home and condominium inventory decreased island wide over the past six years, with the exception of King Quarter, where residential inventory increased by 1.2 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2017

12 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 12 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – Good news! At 175 home sales, total homes sold during the past 12 months is the highest since 2006/2007. The lowest number of sales was 2011/2012, with only 90 home sales.

·         Condominiums – More good news! At 142 condo sales, this is the highest number of condominiums sold in a 12 month period since 2005/2006! The lowest number of condo sales was again 2011/2012, with just 42 condo sales.

·         Land – Land sales have not changed significantly for the past seven years. At 89 lots sold, this is a slight improvement and the highest number since 2009/2010. But this is only 29 lots more than the lowest number (2012/2013) and just 20% of the market high of 442 lot sales for 2005/2006.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Not such good news. The average sales price declined by more than $20,000, compared to the previous 12 month period. For the past six years, the average St Croix home sales price has been between a low of $336,000 (2013/2014) and a high of $392,000 (2015/2016)

·         Condominiums – The $189,246 average condo sales price was $30,000 more than the previous 12 month period. This is the highest average condominium sales price since 2011/2012.  

·         Land – Average lot sales price is unchanged from the previous 12 month period, at $75,822. The average land sales price has changed very little over the past five years, from a low of $66,800 for 2012/2013 to a high of $76,590 for 2015/2016.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – The total residential market is unchanged from the previous 12 month period; more homes sold, but at a slightly lower price. The total residential market, at $64.8 million, is about 2/3 of the market high of $93.6 million in 2005/2006.

·         Condominiums – Excellent news! At $26.9 million, this is the highest total market since 2005/2006 ($40.1 million) and $8 million more than the previous 12 month period. The market low was $8.8 million for 2011/2012.

·         Land – The total market improve by $2 million over the previous 12 month period, but is only 15% of the height of the market in 2005/2006.

Conclusion

Compared to 12 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales have decreased by 45% ($80.9 million)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales have increased by $12 million for the period of July 2016 through June 2017

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2017

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past seven years, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) increased each year through 2016 and more than doubled (from 14% to 32%) over the 7 year period. This price range now represents one third of the St Croix home market.

·         The second tier (($200,000 to $400,000) has consistently represented nearly 1/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix over the 7 year period. Nearly 2/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix are currently listed for $400,000 or less.

·         Over the 7 year period, homes listed from more than $400,000 have decreased by 20%, from 56% of the market to 36% of all homes for sale on St. Croix in May 2017.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) has more than doubled over the 7 year period, from 9% of total market in 2010 to 23% of the total St Croix condominium market in 2017.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has decreased by 12%, when compared to May 2010, when this price range represented 50% of all St Croix condominiums for sale.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 now comprise approximately 40% of the total market, as they did seven years ago. In 2013, 2014, and 2016, this segment of the market represented only 30% of all St Croix condominiums for sale.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) has more than doubled over the 7 year period, from 20% of total market in 2010 to 45% of all lots for sale in 2017.

·         The second tier ($50,000 to $100,000) has decreased by 11% over the 7 year period, from 35% of total market in 2010 to 24% of all lots for sale in 2017.

·         Lots listed for more than $100,000 have decreased by 13% over the 7 year period, from 45% of the St Croix land market in 2010 to 32% in May 2017.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2017

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

7 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (20 homes) compared to May 2011.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory (81 condos) is less than half of the May 2011 condominium inventory of 194 condominiums.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011, steadily declining until 2014 and has continually increased since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (31 lots) compared to

May 2011.

May Pending Sale Levels

7 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2015 (85 pending residential sales), at more than twice the May 2011 figure of 41 pending homes sales. The May 2017 pending sales figures were slightly lower, at 75 pending home sales, but still significantly higher than the 2011 trough 2015 May pending home sales.

Condominium

For the past 5 years, May pending condominium sales have been in the mid-20 rage, with the exception of May 2016, when there were 34 pending condominium sales in mid-May.

Land

Pending land sales (34 for May 2017) have almost returned to the May 2011 level of 35 pending land sales.

2017 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2017 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict there will be approximately 30 more homes sold than 2016 BUT pending sales tell a different story, so no prediction.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be nearly as the same number of condominiums sold as in 2016 BUT pending sales tell a somewhat different story, so no prediction.

Land

Land sales have nearly returned to the 2011 levels! This is the segment of the St Croix real estate market showing the most improvement, but there is a lot of inventory to sell; the current rate of sales predicts about 20% of the inventory should sell during 2017.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2017

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2017 is the 9^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008.

The obvious question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

9 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, at 340 homes for sale, and has continually declined each year since. Current residential inventory levels are now lower, at 239 homes on the market, than at the beginning of the recovery in 2009, when there were 266 homes on the market.

·         Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums on the market. The current level of 97 condominiums for sale is the lowest inventory level of the 9 year period.

·         Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. There was            a slight decline during the 2013 to 2015 period. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, with 528 lots for sale in March 2017.  

Residential Sales & 2017 Predictions

The number of units sold during the first quarter has consistently under predicted the total number of sales for the year. The average of the under prediction over the 8 year period is 20%.

The average 1^st quarter sales price has, since 2012, been within 12% of the annual average sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be slightly over 200; this would most homes sold in any year since 2002, a 15 year high!

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $350,000 range, about the same as 2016.

Condominium Sales & 2017 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Since 2012, the 1^st quarter units sold have underestimated the annual total number of units sold by about 13%.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the mid-160 unit range, based on the past 8 years. But there are fewer than 100 condominiums in the inventory – interesting!

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $190,000 range, very similar to the 1^st quarter average condominium sales price.

Land Sales & 2017 Predictions

The average under prediction of total lot sales for the 9 year period is 21%. However, the predicted annual number of sales, based on 1^st quarter sales, is the highest on 9 years. A sign of market recovery!

On average, over the 8 year period, 1^st quarter sales prices have underestimated the annual average sales price by 6%.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be more than 100, for the first time in 9 years, and possibly as high as 130!

·         The 2017 average lot sales price may just top $100,000, which means that “big view” lots and acreage are finally selling!

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2017©

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 14 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 14 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Number of homes sold on St Thomas has been the same for the past three years (95 homes). Over the 14 year period, St Croix has seen a high of 188 homes sold (2006) and a low of 88 homes sold (2012). During 2016, 169 homes sold on St Croix; this is a 21% increase over 2015 (140 home sales) and a 2% decrease from 2003 (173 home sales).

·         The most homes sold annually for both islands during this 14 year period was 2004 for St Thomas (118 homes sales) and 2006 for St Croix (188 home sales). For St Thomas, 2016 homes sales were 80% of the market high and 90% of the market high for St Croix.

Average Sales Price

·         At the beginning of this 14 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·         From 2004 until the present, the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2016, the average St Thomas homes price was 36% higher ($566,513) than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2016 was 15% lower ($352,232) than the 2003 average sales price.

·         The average sale price of a home on St Croix for 2016 ($352,232) was 62% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($566,513).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 14 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during four years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. For the first time in five years, since 2012, the total St Croix residential market ($59.5 Million) exceed the total St Thomas market ($53.8 Million), by $5.7 Million.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

February 2017

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 14 Year Look

 Total Number of Properties Sold

·        More homes, condominiums, and lots sold in 2016 than were sold during 2015

·        Number of homes sold during 2016 (169) exceeds all years since 2007 (177 home sales).

·        Number of condominiums sold during 2016 (124) exceeds all years since 2006 (162 condo sales).

·        Number of lots sold during 2017 (76) exceeds all years since 2011 (79 lots sold).

Average Sales Price

·        The 2016 average home sales price ($352,232) was 13% lower ($51,322) than the average home sale price for 2015 ($403,554). It was, however, an improvement over 2013 ($319,450) and 2014 ($332,950) and is very similar to the average home sale price of 2005 ($355,100).

·        The 2016 average condominium sales price ($188,071) was 2% lower ($4,372) than the average condo sales price for 2015 ($192,443). It was an improvement over the 2012 – 2014 period, with an average condominium sales price of $154,000.

·        Only 2011 and 2013 saw lower average lot sales prices than the average 2016 lot sales price of $72,303, which was also 8% lower ($6,732) than the average lot sales price for 2015 ($79,035).

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·        The total residential market increased by 5%, from $56.5 million for 2015 to $59.5 million for 2016. This is the largest total residential market since 2008 ($61.6 Million).

·        The total condominium market increased 12%, from $20.8 million for 2015 to $23.3 million for 2016. For the previous 13 years, only 2005 ($34.7 million) and 2006 ($30.7 million) exceeded the 2016 total condominium market.

·        The total land market increased 10%, from $5.0 million for 2015 to $5.5 million for 2016. This is the largest total land market since 2012 ($5.9 Million).

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2017

5 Year Home Sales Price Trends ©

The average sales price of a home on St Croix has decreased by approximately $41,000 (10%) since 2012 and nearly $51,000 (13%) when comparing 2016 to 2015.

Total number of homes sold has increased by 90% (80 homes) since 2012 and by 21% (29 homes) when comparing 2016 to 2015.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 14% ($97,217).  When comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 13% ($88,000).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased by 67% (8 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, 5 fewer homes sold in 2016.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 141% ($506,153); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 39% ($225,473).

The number of homes sold in a year has tripled since 2012 (from 10 to 30); when comparing 2016 to 2015, 5 more homes sold in 2016.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 58% ($117,862); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 4% ($12,729).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased 60% (9 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, twice as many homes sold as the previous year.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 6% ($15,351); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 12% ($35,621).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased by 2 homes since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, total number of homes sold increased by 4 homes.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 36% ($167,015); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 4% ($25,909).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased 69% (9 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, total number of homes sold more than doubled (from 10 homes to 22 homes).

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 68% ($64,500); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price increased 13% ($18,688).

Four times as many homes sold during 2016 (8 homes) as compared to 2012 (2 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, the same number of homes sold both years.

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 18% ($46,562); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price increased 21% ($36,816).

More than twice as many homes sold during 2016 (13 homes) as compared to 2012 (5 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, 4 more homes sold in 2016 (13 homes) as did in 2015 (13 homes).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 1% ($2,625); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 6% ($13,525).

More than twice as many homes sold during 2016 (22 homes) as compared to 2012 (10 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, one less home sold in 2016.

Observations

Average home sales prices in two areas of the island consistently exceed the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices are about “average”:

·         East End A

·         Company

·         Queen

More homes sold in all quarters during 2016, when compared to 2015, with the exception of:

·         East End B

·         West End

Compared to 2015, the island wide average home sale price decreased 13%. All quarters saw decreased average home sale price with the exception of:

·         King

·         Prince

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw higher average home sales prices:

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw lower average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Prince

·         West End

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

December 2016

Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2016, there were 27 active and 6 pending home sales in East End B, with 20 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 1.7 year supply of homes for sale

[27 + 6] / 20 = 1.7 Years

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory has decreased by one year and average sales price is about 46% ($278,958) lower

($888,908 vs $609,950)

Compared to last year, average time on the market has increased by 6 months; average sales price has decreased by about 4% ($637,077 vs $609,950)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about 19 months (2.6 years vs 1 year); average sales price has decreased by about 25% ($370,846 vs $279,538)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is unchanged at 1 year;

average sales price has decreased by less than 1% ($281,714 vs $279,538)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by 1.5 years

(8.2 years vs 6.7 years); average sales price increased about 36%

($79,929 vs $108,800)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 7 months

(7.3 years vs 6.7 years); average sales price increased by about 35%

($80,787 vs $108,800)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory has decreased by almost a year (11 months); average home sale price increased by about 18%

 ($307,597 vs $361,979)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by one year; average sales price decreased by about 43% ($631,295 vs $361,979)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about 19 months (3 years vs 1.4 years); the average condominium sales price decreased about 8% ($242,556 vs $222,786)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by about 2 months

(1.2 years vs 1.4 years); average sales price has decreased by about 8%

($242,965 vs $222,786)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory is unchanged at 5.3 years; average lot sales price has increased by about 25% ($54,421 vs $67,900)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by 7 years

(12.3 years vs 5.3 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 28% ($93,571 vs $67,900)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by more than 5 years (7.0 years vs 1.8 years); average home sales price has increased about 21% ($275,571 vs $333,239)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by nearly 2 years (3.7 years vs 1.8 years); average home sales price has decreased about 3%

($342,409 vs $333,239)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 18 months (2.3 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price increased by about 8%

 ($124,992 vs $135,559)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by about 10 months

(1.6 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price has increased by about 11%

($122,610 vs $135,559)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by more than 5 years

(3.8 years vs 9.2 years); average sales price has increased to about 60%

($66,433 vs $106,500)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by 7.5 years

(16.7 years vs 9.2 years) while average sales price has increased about 473% ($22,500 vs $106,500)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 2 months  (2.9 years vs 2.7 years) while average sales priced decreased by about 30%

($427,342 vs $296,020)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by about 2 months (2.9 years vs 2.7 years); average sales price increased by about 17%

($253,171 vs $296,020)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by nearly 6 years (6.8 years vs 1 year); average condominium sales price decreased by about 4% ($102,250 vs $98,462)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by about 4.7 years (5.7 years vs 1 year); average sales price has increased about 11%

($88,333 vs $98,462)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by 4 years

(16.2 years vs 20.3 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 19% ($61,000 vs $72,625)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by 12.5 years

(7.8 years vs 20.3 years); the average lot sales price increased about 92%

($37,889 vs $72,625)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by more than 2 years

(3.3 years vs 1.29 years); average home sales price increased by about 14%

($592,312 vs $677,762)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 1.5 years

(2.9 years vs 1.2 years); average home sales price has increased about 28%

($529,444 vs $677,762)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by nearly 4.5 years (4.7 years vs 0.3 years); average sales price has decreased by about 37% ($440,000 vs $276,125)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 6 months

(0.8 years vs 0.3 years); average sales price increased by about 15%

($239,670 vs $276,125)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by almost 7 years

(14 years vs 7.2 years); average lot sales price increased by about 12%

($59,333 vs $66,667)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by 3.3 years

(3.9 years vs 7.2 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 32%

($98,671 vs $66,667)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 20 months 

(4 years vs 2.3 years); average home sales price also decreased by about 36%

($247,800 vs $159,250)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has increased by about 4 months

(2 years vs 2.3 years); average residential sales price increased by about 24% ($128,833 vs $159,250)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

5 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the 12 month period ending November 2011.

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 3 years (4 years vs 7 years);

average lot sales price has decreased about 45% ($76,667 vs $42,500)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, there is about 2 months more residential inventory

(2.6 years vs 2.4 years); the average residential sales price decreased about 12% ($239,519 vs $210,846)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by nearly a year

(3.3 years vs 2.4 years); average residential sales price increased by about 20%

($176,056 vs $210,846)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 2 years (3.7 years vs 1.8 years); average condominium sales price decreased by about 41% ($288,333 vs $170,625)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by 6 months

(1.3 years vs 1.8 years); average condominium sale price decreased by about 16% ($202,000 vs $170,625)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by 6 months

(9.3 years vs 9.8 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 48%

($50,714 vs $26,249)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by more than 5 years

(4.5 years vs 9.8 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 63%

($70,985 vs $26,249)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 16 months  (2.9 years vs 1.6 years); average home sale price has increased by about 28%  ($157,512 vs $200,875)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by about 5 months

(2 years vs 1.6 years); average home sale price decreased by about 10%

($223,800 vs $200,875)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has increased by 20 months (2.3 years vs 4 years); average condominium sale price increased by about 18% ($146,250 vs $172,500)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by about 3.6 year

(5 months vs 4 years); average condominium sales price increased by about 60% ($107,714 vs $172,500)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by 1.4 years

(10.9 years vs 9.5 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 92% ($32,222 vs $61,750)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 6 years

(15.6 years vs 9.5 years); average lot sales price decreased by about 34%

($93,279 vs $61,750)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2016

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014, 2105 and 2016

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

2016

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

1.7 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

2016

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

0.75 sellers for every buyer; condos are selling in less than 1 year on the market

Vacant Land

37 land sales closed January through October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January through October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

2016

64 land sales closed January through October; there were 551 lots for sale

8.6 sellers for every buyer

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

October 2016

Seven Year Comparison

St Croix Real Estate Inventory Levels

TOTAL INVENTORY

Residential

Slightly lower (15 homes) than seven years ago.

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 with 336 homes on the market (34% higher than 9/15/16)

Condominium

GIGANTIC decrease over the seven year period!

Seven years ago, there were nearly three times as many condominiums on the market (236) as were for sale on 9/15/16 (81)

Vacant Land

Slightly lower (40 lots) than seven years ago.

Land inventory has varied little over the seven year period, with the lowest inventory level on 9/15/14 (489 lots)

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Under $200,000 listings have nearly tripled (from 13% to 37%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to seven years ago.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings are nearly unchanged as percentage of total inventory, at about 28%, compared to seven years ago.

$400,000 to $600,000 listings decreased by 4% of the total inventory over the seven year period.

$600,000 to $800,000 listings have decreased by more than 50% over the seven year period, from 15% in 2009 to 7% in 2016.

$800,000 to $1,000,000 have decreased by 50% over the seven year period, from 8% on 9/15/09 to 4% on 9/15/16.

Listings over $1,000,000 have decreased by 7% of the total inventory over the seven year period, from 20% on 9/15/09 to 13% on 9/15/16.

Condominium

Under $100,000 listings more than doubled (from 11% to 25%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to seven years ago.

$100,000 to $200,000 listings are unchanged as percentage of total inventory, at about 46%, compared to seven years ago.

$200,000 to $300,000 listings are also unchanged as percentage of total inventory, at about 16%, compared to seven years ago.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings have decreased by 6%, from 17% to 11%, compared to seven years ago.

Listings over $500,000 have decreased by 5% of the total inventory over the seven year period, from 8% on 9/15/09 to 3% on 9/15/16.

Vacant Land

Under $50,000 listings have nearly doubled (from 21% to 38%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to seven years ago.

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have decreased by 4% as percentage of total inventory, from 30% to 26%, compared to seven years ago.

$100,000 to $300,000 listings have decreased by 6%, from 33% to 27%, compared to seven years ago.

Listings over $300,000 have decreased by 7% of the total inventory over the seven year period, from 16% on 9/15/09 to 9% on 9/15/16.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2016

A Tale of Two Islands

St Croix and St Thomas Real Estate Sales

Four Year Comparison Year to Date

Number of Sales

Residential

Both islands experienced a similar phenomenon, a significant increase in the number of units sold in 2014, a return to nearly the 2013 figure the next year (2015), then an increase of about 1/3 for total units sold during this period in 2016

Condominium

Very similar to the home market for both islands except the reduction in units sold during this period in 2015 was not as severe as experienced by the housing market.

Vacant Land

Vacant land is not selling well on either island. During this period in 2014, exactly the same number of lots were sold on both islands – this was a significant up tick for St Thomas and a big down tick for St Croix. For 2016, the number of lots sold on St Thomas has decreased to nearly the 2013 level, while St Croix, with a much larger inventory, continues to slowly increase the number of lots sold.

Average Sales Price

Residential

Comparatively, St Croix has performed better than St Thomas, but we still have a long way to go; the average home sale price on St Thomas is nearly twice that of St Croix.

St Thomas Home Sales Prices

St Croix Home Sales Prices

The median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less. For both islands, the median decreased over the 4 year period, with a much smaller decrease for St Thomas homes (about $22,000). On St Croix, the median home sale price decreased by $50,000 over the 4 year period.

Median Home Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Condominium

Average condominium sales price held steady on St Thomas for 3 years, then saw a very nice increase of nearly $50,000 per unit for the first 8 months of 2016. Sadly, on St Croix the average condominium sales price is now slightly lower than it was 4 years ago.

St Thomas Condominium Sales Prices

St Croix Condominium Sales Prices

The median condominium sales price has increased steadily, except for a small decease in 2014. On St Croix, the median condominium sales price is now nearly $10,000 less than 4 years ago, even though 2015 showed great promise.

Median Condominium Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Vacant Land

The worst performing segment of our real estate market has mirrored the home market with the exception that the average sale price is now nearly twice that of 4 years ago, for both islands.

St Thomas Land Sales Prices

St Croix Land Sales Prices

Median Land Sales Price

St Croix is performing better than St Thomas, but the median lot sale price is still only about 2/3 that of St Thomas

Total Market (Millions)

Both island have shown a steady improvement in all market segments over the 4 year period, although the 2014 and 2015 figures for St Thomas saw a big increase for 2014, followed by a dip in 2015, but is now improving nicely, particularly the St Thomas condominium market!

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

August 2016

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by 3 years, to a 1.2 year supply of homes and a 1.4 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price has decreased, compared to four years ago.

Average home sale price decreased by 3% over the four year period, from $575,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $558,212 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a larger average sale price decrease of 37%, from $382,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $239,298 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by 3 years, to a 1.4 year supply of homes and a 1.5 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price has decreased, compared to four years ago. For condominiums, the average sale price increased slightly.

Average home sale price decreased by 8% over the four year period, from $481,712 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $392,706 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a 4% increase in average sales price, from $204,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $213,825 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory increased slightly, to a 3.6 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by more than 7 years to a 1.1 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to four years ago.

Average home sale price increased 15% over the four year period, from $191,269 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $219,421 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums also saw a 15% increase in average sales price, from $106,250 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $122,649 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by 1 year, to a 2.7 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 5 years to a 1.0 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to four years ago.

Average home sale price increased 22% over the four year period, from $291,289 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $354,895 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a 21% increase in average sales price, from $75,125 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $90,792 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by nearly 3 years, to a 1.8 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 6 years to a six month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price increased, compared to four years ago. For condominiums, the average sales price decreased.

Average home sale price increased 64% over the four year period, from $459,110 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $753,188 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a 30% decrease in average sales price, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $240,281 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes; there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Home inventory decreased by 1.5 years, to a 2.3 year supply of homes, compared to four years ago. For the 12 months ending July 2013, only one home sold in King Quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased 6% over the four year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $194,875 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by 3.5 years, to a 2.3 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by 10 years to a 1 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price decreased, compared to four years ago.

Average home sale price decreased 22% over the four year period, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $161,958 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a 52% decrease in average sales price, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $200,625 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Four years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by 3 years, to a 1.5 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 6 years, to a 1.3 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to four years ago.

Average home sale price increased 26% over the four year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $206,925 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Condominiums saw a 141% increase in average sales price, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $150,625 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Conclusion

Over the five year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Northside A & B

Over the five year period, average condominium sale prices decreased or remained little changed island wide.

Both home and condominium inventory decreased island wide over the past five years, except for Queen Quarter, which saw a 6 month increase in homes for sale.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2016

11 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 11 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – Good news! Total homes sold during the past 12 months is the highest since 2006 / 2007, at 163 home sales. The lowest number of sales was 2011 / 2012, with only 90 home sales.

·         Condominiums – At 107 condo sales, total sales are not quite as good as the previous 12 month period (2014 / 2015, with 121 condos closed), but respectable. The lowest number of condo sales was again 2011 / 2012, with only 42 condo sales.

·         Land – Land sales have been unchanged for the past 5 years, with just 60 to 71 land sales during the 12 month period.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Again, good news! The “average” home sale price is up nearly $50,000 from the previous 12 month period, at $392,184. The lowest “average” home sales price was 2013 / 2014, at $336,190.

·         Condominiums – “Average” condo sales price was about $9,000 less than the previous 12 month period, at $168,996, and has been in approximately the same range ($146,000 to $176,000) for the past 4 years.

·         Land – “Average” lot sales price was about $9,000 higher than the previous 12 month period, at $76,591. The land market is behaving similarly to the condo market, with little change over the past four years and average sales prices in the $67,000 to $76,000 range.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – More good news! At $63.9 Million, the total residential market is only about $2 Million below the 2006 / 2007 total market of $66.1 Million. Sadly, it is still nearly $30 Million below the height of the market in 2005 / 2006 ($93.6 Million).

·         Condominiums – At $18.1 Million, the total condominium market is $3 Million lower than the previous 12 month period. However, it is much better than the 2009 through 2014 periods and nearly as good as the 2007 / 2008 figure of $20.7 Million!

·         Land – At a total market of $4.7 Million, we’ve seen worse (2012 through 2014), but not much. The current total land market is approximately 10% of the height of the market in 2005 / 2006 of $45.6 Million.

Conclusion

Compared to 11 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales have decreased by 52% ($92.6 Million)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total St Croix real estate sales have increased by $14 Million for the period of July 2015 through June 2016

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2016

Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past 6 years, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) has increased each year and more than doubled (from 14% to 34%) over the 6 year period. This price range now represents one third of the St Croix home market.

·         The second tier (($200,000 to $400,000) has consistently represented nearly 1/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix over the 6 year period. Nearly 2/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix are currently listed for $400,000 or less.

·         Over the 6 year period, homes listed from more than $400,000 have decreased by 20%, from 56% of the market to 36% of all homes for sale on St. Croix in May 2016.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) has nearly tripled over the 6 year period, from 9% of total market in 2010 to 25% of the total St Croix condominium market in 2016.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has decreased by 6%, when compared to May 2010.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 have decreased by 10% of the total market over the 6 year period, from 41% of total market in 2010 to 31% of the total St Croix condominium market in May 2016.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) has nearly doubled over the 6 year period, from 20% of total market in 2010 to 37% of all lots for sale in 2016.

·         The second tier ($50,000 to $100,000) has decreased by 10% over the 6 year period, from 35% of total market in 2010 to 25% of all lots for sale in 2016.

·         Lots listed for more than $100,000 have decreased by 7% over the 6 year period, from 45% of the St Croix land market in 2010 to 38% in May 2016.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2016

May Inventory Levels

6 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (11 homes) compared to May 2011.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory is significantly lower (80 condominiums) compared to May 2011.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011, steadily declining until 2014 and has continually increased since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (31 lots) compared to

May 2011.

May Pending Sale Levels

6 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales were similar for 2011 and 2012, also for the period of 2013 through 2015, after a significant increase. Current pending sale levels showed a huge increase in 2016, but closed sales continue at 2015 levels.

Condominium

Condominium pending sales have followed the same trend as residential pending sales.  Current pending sale levels showed a significant increase in 2016, but closed sales continue at 2015 levels.

Land

There have been no significant changes in the number of pending lot sales over the 6 year period.

2016 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2016 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict there will be approximately the same number of homes sold as in 2015 BUT pending sales tell a very different story, so no prediction.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be approximately the same number of condominiums sold as in 2015 BUT pending sales tell a somewhat different story, so no prediction.

Land

Land is quite predictable. This market will show little improvement in 2016.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2016

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2016 is the 8^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008.

The obvious question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the balance of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

8 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, at 340 homes for sale, and has continually declined each year since. Current residential inventory levels are now lower, at 259 homes on the market, than at the beginning of the recovery in 2009, when there were 266 homes on the market.

·         Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums on the market. The current level of 114 condominiums for sale is the lowest inventory level of the 8 year period.

·         Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. There was            a slight decline during the 2013 to 2015 period; inventory is again increasing, with 546 lots for sale in March 2016.  

Residential Sales & 2016 Predictions

The number of units sold during the first quarter has consistently under predicted the total number of sales for the year. Right now, the prediction is for about the same number of home sales for 2016 as were sold in 2015.

The average 1^st quarter sales price has, in most cases, been within 10% of the annual average sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2016 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be in the mid-140 range, very similar to 2015.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $400,000 range, about the same as 2015.

Condominium Sales & 2016 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Since 2012, the 1^st quarter units sold has consistently underestimated the annual total number of units sold.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price

Here is the prediction for 2016 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the low-90 range, about 15% fewer than 2015.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $140,000 range, very similar to the 1^st quarter average condominium sales price.

Land Sales & 2016 Predictions

Unfortunately, in 2015 the total number of 1^st quarter sales exactly predicted the annual number of lot sales, quite a disappointment. The previous 6 years all exceeded the 1^st quarter predictions for total number of lots sold annually.

The 2015 annual average lot sales price was also very close to the 1^st quarter prediction.

Here is the prediction for 2016 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be about the same as 2015, about 64 lot sales.

·         The 2016 average lot sales price will most likely be a bit below the 2015 average sales price, in the $65,000 range.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2016

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 13 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 13 year period, more homes were sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Both islands saw a slight decrease in the number of homes sold annually from 2014 to 2015; 1% decrease for St Thomas, 8% decrease for St Croix.

·         The most homes sold annually for both islands was during the period of 2003 through 2007. St Thomas averaged 102 home sales annually during this period; current sales levels are at 92% of the height of the market. St Croix averaged 179 home sales during this period; current sales levels are at 78% of the height of the market.

Average Sales Price

·         In 2003, the average price of a home on St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical ($416,250 for St Thomas, $415,390 for St Croix).

·         From 2004 until the present, the annual average home price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2015 was 61% of the average annual home sales price on St Thomas.

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold and average sales price, so it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         For the nine year period of 2003 through 2011, with the exception of 2008, the total annual residential market on St Croix always surpassed the total annual St Thomas residential market.

·         For the past four years, 2012 through 2015, the annual St Thomas residential market has surpassed St Croix. The largest difference was 2014, when total St Thomas residential sales surpassed St Croix by $35 Million Dollars. For 2015 annual residential total market, St Thomas exceeded St Croix by $5.4 Million Dollars.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

February 2016

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 13 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Fewer homes and condominiums sold in 2015 than in 2014

·         Number of homes sold during 2015 (140) exceeds all years since 2007 (177 home sales), except 2014 with 152 home sales.

·         Number of condominiums sold mirrors home sales; more condominiums sold in 2015 (108) than any year since 2006, with the exception of 2014 (121 condo sales).

·         Number of land sales was up slightly when compared to last year, with 64 land sales in 2015, but similar to the number of land sales since 2012.

Average Sales Price

·         The 2015 average home sales price ($403,550) shows an improvement over 2013 ($319,450) and 2014 ($332,950) and is very similar to the average home sale price of 2003 ($413,430).

·         The 2015 average condominium sales price ($192,440) is nearly $50,000 higher than the 2003 average sales price ($144,820) and exceeds the average condominium sales price for the past three years.

·         Only 2011, 2013, and 2014 saw lower average lot sale prices than the average 2015 lot sales price of $79,035.

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         Even though the number of home sales in 2015 were down about 7%, when compared to 2014, the significant increase in average sales price of about $70,000 resulted in an increase of $6,000,000 for the total home sales market.

·         Condominiums experienced a larger decrease in units sold when comparing 2014 with 2015 (10%) and a smaller increase in average sales price of about $50,000, resulting in only about a $1,000,000 improvement in total condo sales market.

·         At a $5,000,000 total market for land sales, only 2013 ($3.4 million) and 2014 ($4.1 Million) turned in a poorer land sale performance.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2016

4 Year Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix has increased by approximately $10,000 (3%) since 2012 and nearly $70,000 (21%) when comparing 2015 to 2014.

Total number of homes sold has increased by 58% (51 homes) since 2012 and decreased by 7% (11 homes) when comparing 2015 to 2014.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 1% ($9,217), but when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 64% ($259,463).

The number of homes sold in a year has doubled since 2012; when comparing 2015 to 2014, 2 fewer homes sold in 2015.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 32% ($280,680); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 43% ($174,159).

The number of homes sold in a year has more than doubled since 2012 (from 10 to 25); when comparing 2015 to 2014, 3 fewer homes sold in 2015.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 65% ($130,591); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 21% ($56,741).

The number of homes sold in a year has decreased by 3 homes since 2012; when comparing 2015 to 2014, only half as many homes sold as the previous year.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 21% ($50,972); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price decreased $503.

The number of homes sold in a year has decreased by 2 homes since 2012; when comparing 2015 to 2014, total number of homes sold increased by 1 home.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 42% ($192,924); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 20% ($105,236).

The number of homes sold in a year has decreased by 3 homes since 2012; when comparing 2015 to 2014, total number of homes sold decreased 41% (7 homes).

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 49% ($45,812); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 4% ($4,895).

Four times as many homes sold during 2015 (8 homes) as compared to 2012 (2 homes); when comparing 2015 to 2014, two more homes sold in 2015.

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 32% ($83,378); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price increased 25% ($34,079).

Nearly twice as many homes sold during 2015 (9 homes) as compared to 2012 (5 homes); when comparing 2015 to 2014, significantly fewer homes sold in 2015 (9 homes) as did in 2014 (14 homes).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Compared to 4 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 6% ($10,900); when comparing 2015 sales figures to 2014, the average home sales price decreased 14% ($36,067).

More than twice as many homes sold during 2015 (23 homes) as compared to 2012 (10 homes); when comparing 2015 to 2014, significantly more homes sold in 2015 (23 homes) as did in 2014 (15 homes).

Observations

(also see graphs below)

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island consistently exceed the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices are about 2/3 the island wide “average” home sales prices:

·         Company

·         Queen

Fewer homes sold in all quarters during 2015, when compared to 2014, with the exception of:

·         King

·         West End

Compared to 2014, the island wide average home sale price increased 21%. All quarters saw increased average home sale price with the exception of:

·         Queen

·         West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw higher average home sales prices:

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

·         West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw lower average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Prince

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

©

December 2015

Inventory Level Trends by Quarter

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2015, there were 25 active and 7 pending home sales in East End B, with 26 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 1.2 year supply of homes for sale

[25 + 7] / 26 = 1.2 Years

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory has decreased by about half

(31 months vs 14 months) and average sales price is about 28% lower

($888,908 vs $637,077)

Compared to last year, home inventory is unchanged (14 months); average sales price has increased by about 54% ($415,756 vs $637,077)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about one third (30 months vs 12 months); average sales price has decreased by about 32% ($370,846 vs $281,714)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is about the same rate

(10 months vs 12 months); average sales price has decreased by about 29% ($200,026 vs $281,714)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory is about one year less

(8.2 years vs 7.3 years); average sales price is unchanged ($79,929 vs $80,787)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 20 months (9 years vs 7.3 years); average sales price increased by about 27% ($58,575 vs $80,787)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory is approximately the same

(2.8 years vs 2.9 years); average home sale price increased by about 106%

 ($307,597 vs $631,295)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has increased by about a year

(1.8 years vs 2.9 years); average sales price increased by about 59%

($397,569 vs $631,295)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about half (36 months vs 14 months); the average condominium sales price is unchanged ($242,556 vs $242,965)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is about the same

(17 months vs 14 months); average sales price has increased by about 4%

($231,529 vs $242,965)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has more than doubled  (5.2 years vs 12.3 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 41% ($54,421 vs $93,571)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by about 4 years

(8.6 years vs 12.3 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 27% ($68,200 vs $93,571)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory is about one half

(7.0 years vs 3.7 years); average home sales price has increased about 19% ($275,571 vs $342,409)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has doubled (1.8 years vs 3.7 years); average home sales price has increased about 20% ($271,052 vs $342,409)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by nearly 75% (7 years vs 19 months); average sales price is unchanged ($124,992 vs $122,610)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by about 5 months (14 months vs 19 months); average sales price has increased by about 16%

($106,240 vs $122,610)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by more than four times   (3.8 years vs 16.7 years) while average sales price has decreased to about one third ($66,433 vs $22,500)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased more than 50% (43 years vs 16.7 years) while average sales price has decreased to about one quarter

($80,000 vs $22,500)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory is unchanged (2.9 years) while average sales priced decreased by about 60% ($427,342 vs $253,171)

Compared to last year, residential inventory is unchanged (2.5 years vs 2.9 years); average sales price decreased by about 10% ($277,776 vs $253,171)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about 13 months (6.8 years vs 5.7 years); average condominium sales price decreased by about 16% ($102,250 vs $88,333)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by about 4.5 years (1.2 years vs 5.7 years); average sales price has increased about 13%

($76,883 vs $88,333)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by about one half

(16.2 years vs 7.8 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 61% ($61,000 vs $37,889)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by 14 months

(6.6 years vs 7.8 years); the average lot sales price is unchanged ($39,583 vs $37,889)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by 5 months

(3.3 years vs 2.9 years); average home sales price decreased by about 12%

($592,312 vs $529,444)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has doubled (1.3 years vs 2.9 years); average home sales price is unchanged ($528,446 vs $529,444)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by nearly four years (4.7 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price has decreased by about 84% ($440,000 vs $239,670)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by about half

(1.5 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price increased by about 11%

($212,333 vs $239,670)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by about 2/3

(14 years vs 3.9 years); average lot sales price increased by about 33%

($59,333 vs $98,671)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by about three quarters

(14.2 years vs 3.9 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 170% ($266,400 vs $98,671)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by 50%

(4 years vs 2 years); average home sales price also decreased by 50%

($247,800 vs $128,833)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by about 20 months

(3.4 years vs 2 years); average residential sale price decreased by about 36% ($174,857 vs $128,833)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

5 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the 12 month period ending November 2011.

Last year, no land sales were reported in King Quarter between December 2013 and November 2014.

Between December 2014 and November 2015, three land sales were reported in King Quarter, with an average sales price of $76,667 and four years of inventory currently on the market.   

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, there is about 8 months more residential inventory (2.6 years vs 3.3 years); the average residential sales price decreased about 36% ($239,519 vs $176,056)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by 16 months (2 years vs 3.3 years); average residential sales price increased by about 14%

($150,172 vs $176,056)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by two thirds (3.7 years vs 1.3 years); average condominium sales price decreased by about 43% ($288,333 vs $202,000)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has decreased by about two thirds (3.7 years vs 1.3 years); average condominium sale price increased by about 21% ($159,333 vs $202,000)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by about one half

(9.3 years vs 4.5 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 28%

($50,714 vs $70,985)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by about one half

(9.5 years vs 4.5 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 117% ($32,750 vs $70,985)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about  11 months  (2.9 years vs 2 years); average home sale price has increased by about 29%  ($157,512 vs $223,800)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by nearly one half

(3.7 years vs 2 years); average home sale price decreased by about 4%

($236,929 vs $223,800)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by nearly two years (2.3 years vs 5 months); average condominium sale price decreased by about 36% ($146,250 vs $107,714)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 15 months

(20 months vs 5 months); average condominium sale price decreased by about 6% ($113,300 vs $107,714)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by 5 years (10.9 years vs 15.6 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 190% ($32,222 vs $93,279)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 8 years (23.8 years vs 15.6 years); average lot sales price increased by about 190% ($32,525 vs $93,279)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2015

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014 vs 2015

Residential

2014

134 homes sales closed January – October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 homes sales closed January – October; there are 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January – October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January – October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

Vacant Land

2014

37 land sales closed January – October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January – October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

OVER VIEW

Residential

Compared to last year, total number of homes sold decreased 17%, from 134 sold during this period in 2014 to 111 homes sold during the same period in 2015

Condominium

Compared to last year, total number of condominiums sold decreased 12%, from 101 sold during this period in 2014 to 88 condos sold during the same period in 2015

Vacant Land

Compared to last year, total number of lots sold increased 68%, from 37 sold during this period in 2014 to 62 lots sold during the same period in 2015!!!

Inventory Levels

In all categories, the total number of properties for sale decreased, compared to October 2014.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

October 2015

Six Year Comparison

St Croix Real Estate Inventory Levels

TOTAL INVENTORY

Residential

Identical to six years ago – 265 homes for sale.

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 – inventory was 27% higher

 (336 homes for sale)

Condominium

Significant (45%) decrease over six years!

236 condos for sale 9/15/09

130 condos for sale 9/15/15

Vacant Land

Inventory has decreased 13% over the six year period.

575 Lots for sale 9/15/09

509 Lots for sale 9/15/15

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Under $200,000 listings have nearly tripled (from 13% to 35%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to six years ago.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings are unchanged as percentage of total inventory, at about 28%

$400,000 to $600,000 listings have decreased by 2% of total inventory

·         15% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         13% of total inventory 9/15/15

$600,000 to $1,000,000 listings declined by more than 50% over the six year period

·         23% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         10% of total inventory 9/15/1/5

Over $1,000,000 listing declined by 6% over the six year period

·         20% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         14% of total inventory 9/15/15

Condominium

Under $100,000 listings have more than doubled (from 11% to 25%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to six years ago.

$100,000 to $200,000 listings have decreased by 6% of total inventory,

compared to six years ago

·         47% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         41% of total inventory 9/15/15

$200,000 to $300,000 listings are essentially unchanged over the six year period,

at about 18% of total inventory.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings have decreased by 6% over the six year period

·         17% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         11% of total inventory 9/15/15

Over $500,000 listings have decreased by 50% of total inventory over the six year period

·         8% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         4% of total inventory 9/15/15

Vacant Land

Under $50,000 listings have nearly doubled as a percentage of total inventory,

over the six year period.

·         21% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         37% of total inventory 9/15/15

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have decreased by 5% of total inventory,

since six years ago

·         30% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         25% of total inventory 9/15/15

$100,000 to $300,000 listings have decreased 6% of total inventory,

since six years ago

·         33% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         27% of total inventory 9/15/15

Over $300,000 listings have decreased by 5% of total inventory since six years ago

·         16% of total inventory 9/15/09

·         11% of total inventory 9/15/15

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2015