St. Croix Realtors Joe & Julie San Martin

August 2018

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory has decreased for both homes and condominiums, 

There is now a 19 month supply of homes and an 11 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Compared to six years ago, both homes and condominiums have experienced a decrease in average sales price.

The average sales price of a home in this quarter ($560,938) is $15,000 less than it was six year ago ($575,667).

Condominiums experienced a larger decrease in average sales price ($152,000), from $383,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $230,538 for the 12 months ending July 2018. 

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory has decreased for both homes and condominiums.  

There is now an 18 month supply of homes and a 10 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price ($458,335) decreased about $22,000, compared to six years ago.

Condominium average sale price ($245,190) increased by about $40,000, when compared to six years ago ($204,667).

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 2 years, to a 17 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory sell off was dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units six years ago to a current 1 year supply of condominiums for sale.

Average Sales Price

Homes and condominiums both experienced average sales price increases, compared to six years ago.

Average home sale price increased the most ($72,000), from $191,269 in 2012 to $264,498 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Average condo sale price increased $37,000, from $$101,250 six years ago to $143,896 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Home inventory has decreased by 16 months, to 1.8 years, over the six year period.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 7 years over this period, to an 8 month supply for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Average Sales Price

Decrease in inventory levels also resulted in an increase of average sale price over the six year period, for both homes and condos.

Average residential sale price increased by $37,000 over the six year period, from $291, 29 in 2012 to $328,725 from the 12 months ending July 2018.

Average condo sale price increased by $44,000 over the six year period, from

$75,125 in 2012 to $119,408 from the 12 months ending July 2018.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by 3 years, to a 1.5 year supply of homes.

The condominium supply decreased by nearly 4 years, to a 2.7 year supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price ($549,333) increased by $90,000, compared to six years ago ($459,110). Current average sale price is, however, $210, 00 lower than the highest average sale price during the six year period, which was $753,188 for the 12 months ending July 2016.

Average condominium sale price decreased by about $30,000 over the six year period, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $316,500 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Located near the closed refinery, this is the worst performing segment of our market.

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Residential inventory increased slightly, to a 4 year supply of homes, compared to six years ago. For the 12 months ending July 2013, only one home sold in King Quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased $81,000 over the six year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $126,450 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by 2 years, to a 3.7 year supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by nearly 11 years, to a 1.3 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a sale price increase of nearly $70,000 when compared the six years ago, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $275,750 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Condominiums experienced a $214,000 decrease in average sale price over the six year period, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $200,625 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Six years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Over the six year period, residential inventory decreased by 3.4 years, to a 1.2 year supply of homes for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Condominium inventory decreased by 5 years, to a 2 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased $74,000 over the six year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $238,158 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Average condominium sale price increased $45,000 over the six year period, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $107,067 for the 12 months ending July 2018.

Conclusion

Over the seven year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·         Northside A & B

·         East End B

·         East End A

Over the seven year period, the average condominium sale price decreased by about $35,000. These quarters experienced an increase in average sale condo sale price:

·         East End A

·         Company

·         Queen

·         West End

Residential and condominium inventories decreased island wide over the past seven years, with the exception of King Quarter, where residential inventory increased about 2 months.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2018

13 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 13 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – Fewer homes sold in the past 12 months than were sold during the past 4 annual cycles. But there was that weather event - Irma / Maria, the likes of which we have not seen for 100 years!

·         Condominiums – 40% fewer (84) condominiums sold than were sold during the previous 12 month period (142).  

·         Land – Land sales performed the best. During the current period, 80 lots sold compared to 89 for the previous 12 month period

Average sales price

·         Residential – The one bright spot! The “average” sales price of a home on St Croix ($382,435) increased by $12,000 over the previous 12 month period ($370,340).

·         Condominiums – Average condominium sales price for this 12 month period ($173,977) was about $15,000 less than the previous period ($189,240).

·         Land – Average lot sales price ($63,069) also decreased, by about $11,000, for this 12 month period, when compared to the previous period ($75,822).

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – The total residential market ($54.7 million) was $10 million less than the previous 12 month period (($64.8 million).

·         Condominiums – This 12 month period ($14.6 million) was $12 million less than the previous 12 months ($26.9). Many fewer condominiums sold, at a lower average sale price.

·         Land – This total market experienced the smallest decrease ($1.7 million). The total market for July 2017 through June 2018 was $5 million. For the previous 12 month period, the total land market was $6.7 million.

Conclusion

Compared to 13 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales have decreased by $105 Million Dollars (59%)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales have decreased by $24 million (24%) for the period of July 2017 through June 2018

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2018

Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past nine years, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) has accounted for about one third of the St Croix residential inventory for the past 5 years. In 2010, this price range was only 14% of the inventory, increasing to about 25% for the next three years.

·         The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) has consistently comprised nearly one third of all homes for sale on St Croix over the 9 year period. Nearly two thirds of all homes for sale on St Croix are currently listed for $400,000 or less.

·         Over the 9 year period, homes listed for more than $400,000 have decreased by 18%, from 56% of the inventory in 2010 to 38% of all homes for sale on St. Croix in May 2018.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) is now 12% and approaching the 2010 level of 9% of inventory, after more than tripling in 2014, when this price range represented 30% of condominium inventory.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory over the 9 year period.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 have consistently comprised about one third of the inventory over the 9 year period.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) has more than doubled over the 9 year period, from 20% of total inventory in 2010 to 42% of all lots for sale in 2018.

·         The second tier ($50,000 to $100,000) has decreased from one third of the inventory to one quarter of all lots for sale over the 9 year period.

·         Lots listed for more than $100,000 have decreased from approximately 45% of total inventory to about one third of all lots for sale over the 9 year period.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2018

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

8 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 at 330 homes for sale and has steadily declined since then. Current inventory of 173 homes for sale is 37% lower (100 homes) than May 2012 residential inventory.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012, at 230 condominiums for sale, and has steadily declined since then. Current inventory of 72 condos is less than one third of the May 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011, steadily declining until 2014 and is now at its lowest level of the 8 year period with 411 lots for sale, nearly 30% lower than 8 years ago.

May Pending Sale Levels

8 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2016, at 85 pending residential sales, and have been robust since, at nearly twice the level of earlier in the decade.

Condominium

The condominium inventory has continuously declined since May 2012. Meanwhile the number of pending condo sales has steadily increased and is currently at 50% of the inventory!  
 

Land

Pending land sales have remained relatively constant over the 8 year period, but now represent a higher portion of the inventory, which has significantly declined.

2018 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2018 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict there will be approximately the same number of homes sold in 2018 as were sold during the previous 4 years. The average number of homes sold for years 2014 through 2017 was 154 homes annually; looks like a trend!

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be about half as many condominiums sold as were sold during the 2014 through 2017 period, which averaged 115 condos a year. This prediction might be accurate, due to the low condominium inventory?

Land

Land sales have nearly returned to 2011 levels! This is the segment of the St Croix real estate market showing the most improvement, but there is a lot of inventory to sell; the current rate of sales predicts about 20% of the inventory should sell during 2018.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2018

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2018 is the 10^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 were not helpful.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

10 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, at 340 homes for sale, and has continually declined each year since. Current residential inventory levels are at only 52% (176 homes) of the 2012 level, a significant decline.

·       Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums on the market. The current level of 85 condominiums for sale is only 32% of the inventory 2010.

·       Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. First quarter 2018 inventory is again the lowest level of the 10 year period at 74% (454 lots) of the 2010 inventory levels.

Residential Sales & 2018 Predictions

From 2009 to 2016, the number of homes sold during the first quarter consistently under predicted the total number of sales for the year. The average of the under prediction over the 8 year period was 20%. 2017 was a trend reverser; sales predictions based on the number of 1^st quarter homes sold was 5% higher than the actual number of home sold.

For the period 2012 through 2016, the average 1^st quarter sales price was within 12% of the actual annual average sales price. The 2017 prediction, based on 1^st quarter average home sales price, was 28% below the actual average 2017 home sales price of $402,507.

Here is the prediction for 2018 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be as predicted, around 120, representing about a 20% decreased from total number of homes sold during 2017.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $350,000 range, about the same as 2016.

Condominium Sales & 2018 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

For the period of 2012 through 2016, the 1^st quarter condo sales have underestimated the annual total number of condos sold by about 13%. 2017 was a game changer; the predicted number of condos sold (144) was 26% higher than the actual number of condos sold (107).

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2018 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 80 condo range, even though only 10 condominiums sold during the 1^st quarter. Put another way, all of the 85 condominiums currently listed for sale should sell.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $180,000 range, about 85% of the 1^st quarter average 2018 condominium sales price.

Land Sales & 2018 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold are trending in the right direction, at last! A sign of market recovery!

For the past 4 years, 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price has consistently been in the $70,000 range. Predications based on 1^st quarter land sales prices for this period varied as much as $30,000 off the actual annual lot sales price; this statistic does not appear to be a good predictor for the rest of the year.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be about 100, similar to 2017 and the highest number of lots sold since 2009.

·         The 2018 average lot sales price will be in the $70,000 range, similar to the previous 5 years. Land asking prices have adjusted downward.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2018

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 15 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 15 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         The number of homes sold on both St Thomas and St Croix declined slightly in 2017, when compared to 2016; not surprising.

·         Over the 15 year period, St Croix has seen a high of 188 homes sold (2006) and a low of 88 homes sold (2012). During this same period, St Thomas saw a high of 118 homes sold (2004) and a low of only 46 homes sold (2009).

·         Nearly twice as many homes were sold on St Croix during 2017 (156) as were sold on St Thomas (88).

·         Compared to 2016, 7 fewer homes were sold on St Thomas and 13 fewer homes were sold on St Croix during 2017.

Average Sales Price

·         At the beginning of this 15 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·         From 2004 until the present (14 years) the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2017, the average St Thomas homes price was 51% higher, at $627,079, than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2017 was 3% lower, at $402,507, than the 2003 average sales price.

·         The average sale price of a home on St Croix for 2017 ($402,507) was 64% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($627,079).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 15 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during four years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. For the past two years, 2016 and 2017, total St Croix residential market has exceeded the total St Thomas residential market by about $6 Million.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

February 2018

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 15 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Fewer homes and condominiums sold in 2017 than were sold in 2016; not a big surprise, given the two major 2017 hurricanes. There was, however, a slight uptick in number of lot sales – 12 more lots were sold in 2017 than in 2016.

·         The number of homes sold during 2017 (156) exceeds all years since 2008 (125 home sales) except 2016, when 169 homes sold.

·         The number of condominiums sold during 2017 (106) exceeds the number of sales for the seven year period of 2007 through 2013, but falls short of the previous three years sales numbers (2014 – 2016).

·         The number of lots sold during 2017 (88) exceeds all years since 2009, when 128 lots sold.

Average Sales Price

·         The 2017 average home sales price ($402,507) exceeded the average 2016 average homes sale price by $50,000! However, the 2017 average home sales price is $10,000 lower than the average home sale price of 15 years ago ($413,439).

·         The 2017 average condominium sales price ($182,412) is about $6,000 lower than the 2016 average condominium sales price. It is, however, nearly $40,000 higher than the average condominium sales price 15 years ago ($144,823).

·         The average 2017 lot sales price ($89,914) is the highest average lot sales price since 2012 ($108,952).The 2017 average lot sale price is nearly identical to the 2013 average lot sales price of $91,315.

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         The 2017 total residential market ($62.8 million) was about $3 million higher than the 2016 total residential market of $59.5 million. But the total residential market is still $9 million less than the total residential market of 15 years ago ($71.9 million).

·         The 2017 total condominium market ($17.7 million) was $5.6 Million lower than the total 2016 condominium market ($23.3 million). The 2017 total condominium market was also $2.6 million below the total condominium market in 2003 ($20.3 million).

·         The 2017 total land market ($6.5 million) exceed the previous year by $1 million. But the total land market is still more than $10 million below our total land market of 15 years ago ($17.1 million).

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2018

 Year Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix increased by $12,239 over the 5 year period; this is a 3% increase

Total number of homes sold increased 73% (65 homes) since 2012.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 1% ($4,208).  

The number of homes sold in a year has more than doubled;

12 homes sold in 2012 compared to 28 in 2017.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 59% ($505,672) from $859,500 for 2012 to $353,828 for 2017.

The number of homes sold in a year more than doubled since 2012;

10 homes sold in 2012 compared to 25 in 2017.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 46% ($92,392), from $202,367 for 2012 to $294,759 for 2017.

The number of homes sold in a year has almost doubled since 2012,

from 15 home sales in 2012 to 27 homes sales in 2017.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 58% ($141,683) from $242,003 for 2012 to $383,686 for 2017.

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 3 homes since 2012, from 22 homes sold in 2012 to 25 home sales in 2017.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 44% ($201,986), from $458,576 for 2012 to $660,562 for 2017.

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 3 homes since 2012, from 13 homes sales in 2012 to 16 sold during 2017.

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 69% ($65,250), from $94,750 for 2012 to $160,000 for 2017.

Twice as many homes sold when compared to 6 years ago,

from 2 homes in 2012 to 4 homes in 2017.

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 15% ($37,392), from $256,000 for 2012 to $219,208 for 2017.

More than twice as many homes sold during 2017 (12 homes) as compared to

 2012 (5 homes).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 6 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 13% ($25,853), from $203,500 for 2012 to $177,647 for 2017.

Five more homes sold during 2017 (15 homes) than during 2012 (10 homes).

Observations

Average home sales prices in these two quarters of the island consistently exceed the

island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in these three quarters of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices in these areas are about “average”:

·         East End A

·         Company

·         Queen

More homes sold in all quarters during 2017, when compared to 2012.

Compared to 2016, the island wide average home sale price increased 15%.

All quarters saw increased average home sales prices with the exception of:

·         Company

·         West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters had higher average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

Compared to 2012, these quarters had lower average home sales prices:

·         East End A

·         Prince

·         West End

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

December 2017

 Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2017, there were 20 active and 4 pending home sales in East End B, with 27 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 0.9 year supply of homes for sale

[20 + 4] / 27 = 0.9 Years or 10.8 months

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, home inventory decreased by nearly 2 years and average sales price is about 25% ($220,149) lower

(from $888,908 to $668,759)

Compared to last year, average time on the market has decreased by 9.6 months; average sales price has increased by about 10% (from $609,950 to $668,759)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 18 months (from 2.6 years to 1.1 years); average sales price decreased by 32%

(from $370,846 to $253,785)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is unchanged at 1 year;

average sales price decreased by 9% (from $279,538 to $253,785)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory decreased by 3.5 years

(from 8.2 years to 4.7 years); average sales price decreased by 4%

(from $79,929 to $77,138)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 2 years;

 average sales price decreased by 29% (from $108,800 to $77,138)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, home inventory decreased by a year;

 average home sale price increased by 16% (from $307,597 vs $357,604)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 2 months;

average sales price decreased by 1% (from $361,979 to $357,604)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 8 months (from 3 years to 2.3 years);

average condominium sales price decreased 37% (from $242,556 to $152,129)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by a year

(from 1.4 years to 2.3 years); average sales price decreased by 32%

(from $222,786 to $152,129)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory is about the same at 5.8 years;

average lot sales price increased by 86% (from $54,421 to $101,464)

Compared to last year, land inventory is unchanged;

average lot sales price increased by 49% (from $67,900 to $101,464)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, residential inventory decreased by more than 6 years (from 7 years to 0.8 years);

average home sales price is the same as 6 years ago ($275,274)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 1 year;

 average home sales price decreased 17% (from $333,239 to $275,274)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 17 months (from 2.3 years to 0.9 years);

average sales price increased by 14% (from $124,992 to $142,067)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is unchanged at about 10 months; average sales price has increased by 5% (from $135,559 to $142,067)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory increased by 1 year

(from 3.8 years to 4.9 years);

average sales price increased by 55% (from $66,433 to $103,000)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by more than 4 years

(from 9.2 years to 4.9 years) while average sales price decreased 3%

(from $106,500 to $103,000)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, residential inventory decreased by about 4 months

(from 2.9 years to 2.6 years);

average sales priced decreased by 9% (from $427,342 to $390,012)

Compared to last year, residential inventory is unchanged at 2.6 years;

average sales price increased by 17% (from $296,020 to $390,012)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by more than 6 years (from 6.8 years to 5 months);

average condominium sales price increased by 6% (from $102,250 to $108,263)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 7 months;

 average sales price increased by 10% (from $98,462 to $108,263)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory decreased by nearly 10 years

(from 16.2 years to 6.5 years);

average lot sales price increased by 10% (from $61,000 to $67,314)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by nearly 14 years;

 the average lot sales price decreased 7% (from $72,625 to $67,314)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 2.5 years;

average home sales price increased by 7% (from $592,312 to $632,294)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 5 months;

 average home sales price decreased 7% (from $677,762 to $632,294)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 2.5 years (from 4.7 years to 2 years);

average sales price decreased 16% (from $440,000 to $369,167)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by more than 20 months

(from 0.3 years to 2 years);

average sales price increased by 34% (from $276,125 to $369,167)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory decreased by 8 years

(from 14 years to 6 years);

average lot sales price increased by 17% (from $59,333 to $69,333)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 1.2 years

(from 7.2 years to 6 years);

average lot sales price increased by 4% (from $66,667 to $69,333)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, residential inventory increased by 3 years 

(from 4 years to 7 years);

average home sales price decreased by 20% (from $247,800 to $196,667)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by nearly 5 years

(from 2.3 years to 7 years);

average residential sales price increased by 23% (from $159,250 to $196,667)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

6 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the 12 month period ending November 2011.

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 6 months

(from 7 years to 7.5 years);

average lot sales price decreased by 52% (from $42,500 to $20,500)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, there is about 10 months less residential inventory

(from 2.6 years to 1.8 years);

average residential sales price decreased by 17% (from $239,519 to $208,115)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 7 months

(from 2.4 years to 1.8 years);

average residential sales price decreased by 1% (from $210,846 to $208,115)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory increased by 1.3 years (from 3.7 years to 5 years);

average condominium sales price decreased by 45% (from $288,333 to $160,000)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased 3.2 years

(from 1.8 years to 5 years);

average condominium sale price decreased by 6% (from $170,625 to $160,000)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory decreased by 5.7 years

(from 9.3 years to 3.6 years);

average lot sales price decreased by 49% (from $50,714 to $25,690)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 6.2 years

(from 9.8 years to 3.6 years);

average lot sales price decreased by 2% (from $26,249 to $25,690)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 6 years ago, residential inventory decreased by about 10 months

(from 2.9 years to 2.1 years);

average home sale price has increased by 13% (from $157,512 to $177,647)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by about 7 months

(from 1.6 years to 2.1 years);

average home sale price decreased 12% (from $200,875 to $177,647)

Condominium

            Compared to 6 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 1.3 years (from 2.3 years to 1 year);

average condominium sale price increased by 4% (from $146,250 to $152,740)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 3 years;

average condominium sales price decreased by 12% (from $172,500 to $152,740)

Vacant Land

Compared to 6 years ago, land inventory increased by 1.2 years

(from 10.9 years to 12.1years);

average lot sales price decreased by 31% (from $32,222 to $22,214)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 2.6 years

(from 9.5 years to 12.1 years);

average lot sales price decreased by 64% (from $61,750 to $22,214)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2017

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014, 2105, 2016, and 2017

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

2016

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

1.7 sellers for every buyer

2017

130 home sales closed January through October; there were 200 homes for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

2016

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

0.75 sellers for every buyer; condos are selling in less than 1 year on the market

2017

92 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 81 condos for sale

0.88 sellers for every buyer; condos continue to sell in less than 1 year on the market

Vacant Land

37 land sales closed January through October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January through October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

2016

64 land sales closed January through October; there were 551 lots for sale

8.6 sellers for every buyer

2017

75 land sales closed January through October; there were 486 lots for sale

6.5 sellers for every buyer

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

October 2017

Eight Year Comparison

St Croix Real Estate Inventory Levels

TOTAL INVENTORY

Residential

15% lower (41 homes) than eight years ago.

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 with 336 homes on the market (33% higher than 9/15/17)

Condominium

GIGANTIC decrease over the eight year period!

Eight years ago, there were nearly three times as many condominiums on the market (236) as were for sale on 9/15/17 (87)

Vacant Land

16% lower (89 lots) than eight years ago.

Land inventory has varied little over the eight year period, with the lowest inventory level on 9/15/17 (486 lots)

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Under $200,000 listings have more than doubled (from 13% to 34%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to eight years ago.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings have increased to 1/3 of the total inventory from about 28%, compared to eight years ago.

$400,000 to $600,000 listings decreased by 3% of the total inventory over the eight year period.

$600,000 to $800,000 listings have decreased from 15% to just 3% of total inventory over the eight year period.

$800,000 to $1,000,000 have decreased by 50% over the eight year period, from 8% of total inventory on 9/15/09 to 4% on 9/15/17.

Listings over $1,000,000 have decreased by 6% of the total inventory over the eight year period, from 20% on 9/15/09 to 14% on 9/15/17.

Condominium

Under $100,000 listings have nearly doubled (from 11% to 21%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to eight years ago.

$100,000 to $200,000 listings have decreased by 11% of total inventory, to about 36%, compared to eight years ago.

$200,000 to $300,000 listings have increased by 2% as percentage of total inventory, at about 19%, compared to eight years ago.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings have also increased by about 2%, from 17% to 19%, compared to eight years ago.

Listings over $500,000 have decreased by 3% of the total inventory over the eight year period, from 8% on 9/15/09 to 5% on 9/15/17.

Vacant Land

Under $50,000 listings have nearly doubled (from 21% to 44%) as percentage of total inventory, compared to eight years ago.

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have decreased by 5% as percentage of total inventory, from 30% to 25%, compared to eight years ago.

$100,000 to $300,000 listings have decreased by 11%, from 33% to 22%, compared to eight years ago.

Listings over $300,000 have decreased by 7% of the total inventory over the eight year period, from 16% on 9/15/09 to 9% on 9/15/17.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2017

A Tale of Two Islands

St Croix and St Thomas Real Estate Sales

Five Year Comparison Year to Date

Number of Sales

Residential

Both islands experienced a similar phenomenon, a significant increase in the number of units sold in 2014, a return to nearly the 2013 figure the next year (2015), and then an increase of about 1/3 for total units sold during this period in 2016 and 2017

Condominium

Very similar to the home market for both islands except the reduction in units sold during this period in 2015 was not as severe as experienced by the housing market.

Vacant Land

Vacant land is not selling well on either island. During this period in 2014, exactly the same number of lots were sold on both islands – this was a significant up tick for St Thomas and a big down tick for St Croix. 2017 saw a significant increase in lot sales on both islands.

Average Sales Price

Residential

Comparatively, St Croix has performed better than St Thomas, but we still have a long way to go; the average home sale price on St Thomas is about 50% more than on St Croix. 

St Thomas Home Sales Prices

St Croix Home Sales Prices

The median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less. For St Thomas, the median sales price has decreased by $110,000 over the 5 year period. On St Croix, the median sales price is $10,000 higher than 5 years ago, but still only 70% of the St Thomas median sales price.

 Median Home Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Condominium

Average condominium sales price has increased by about $30,000 for St Thomas over the 5 year period. On St Croix, average condominium sales price has decreased by $5,000, compared to this period 5 years ago.

St Thomas Condominium Sales Prices

St Croix Condominium Sales Prices

The median condominium sales price on St Thomas increased 24% over the 5 year period. St Croix showed no change, compared to 5 years ago. The median St Thomas sales price is $70,000 higher than St Croix.

Median Condominium Sales Price

Average Sales Price

Vacant Land

The worst performing segment of our real estate market has mirrored the home market with the exception that the average sale price is now nearly twice that of 5 years ago, for both islands.

St Thomas Land Sales Prices

St Croix Land Sales Prices

Median Land Sales Price

On both islands, the median lot sales price is almost exactly the same as 5 years ago.

Total Market (Millions)

For the first time in this 5 year period, the St Croix total residential market exceeded that of St Thomas, by 1%.

Residential

The St Thomas total condominium market was 2 ½ times that of 5 years ago, for this period. The St Croix figure was 1 ½ times that of 5 years ago, and only about 60% of the St Thomas total market

Condominium

The St Thomas total land market quadrupled over the 5 year period and their total market is twice that of St Croix. On St Croix the total market is about 2 ½ times that of 5 years ago for this period.

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

August 2017

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by more than 3 years, to an 11 month supply of homes and a 1 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price has increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased by 5% over the five year period, from $575,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $602,086 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a significant average sale price decrease of 22% ($83,895), from $382,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $298,605 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For both homes and condominiums, the inventory has decreased by about 3 years, to a 1.6 year supply of homes and a 1.8 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price decreased, compared to five years ago. For condominiums, the average sale price increased by about $4,000.

Average home sale price decreased by 7% ($82,209) over the five year period, from $481,712 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $399,503 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 2% increase in average sales price, from $204,667 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $208,333 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by nearly 3 years, to just a 1 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the inventory sell off was even more dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units to just 8 months! There were 52 condominium sales in Company Quarter in the past 12 months; extraordinary when you consider there are currently only 79 condominiums for sale on St Croix!

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 86% over the five year period, from $191,269 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $356,306 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 43% increase in average sales price, from $106,250 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $152,223 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased only slightly, to a 2.6 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 8 years to a six month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price decreased 16% ($38,118), compared to four years ago, from $291,289 to $253,171 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums not only saw a big decrease in inventory, the average sales price increased 48% ($36,140), from $75,125 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $111,265 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by more than 3 years, to a 1.4 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by nearly 6 years to an eleven month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For homes, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago. For condominiums, the average sales price decreased.

Average home sale price increased 38% ($176,596) over the five year period, from $459,110 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $635,706 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 29% decrease ($100,143) in average sales price, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $244,857 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Located near the closed refinery, this is the worst performing segment of our market.

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Home inventory increased to a 5 year supply of homes, compared to five years ago. For the 12 months ending July 2013, only one home sold in King Quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased 24% ($50,800) over the five year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $156,600 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by nearly 4 years, to a 2 year supply of homes. For condominiums, the supply decreased by 9 years, to a 2 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a modest price increase, condominiums experienced a dramatic average price decrease, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 9% ($19,528) over the five year period, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $227,958 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 62% ($257,667) decrease in average sales price, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $157,333 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Five years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

For homes, the inventory decreased by 2.4 years, to a 2.2 year supply of homes.

For condominiums, the supply decreased by 4.5 years, to a 2.5 year supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

For both homes and condominiums, the average sales price increased, compared to five years ago.

Average home sale price increased 15% ($24,315) over the five year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $188,615 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Condominiums saw a 177% increase in average sales price, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $173,125 for the 12 months ending July 2017.

Over the six year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·         Northside A & B

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Company

Over the six year period, average condominium sale prices decreased or remained little changed except for these quarters:

·         West End

·         Company

·         Queen

Both home and condominium inventory decreased island wide over the past six years, with the exception of King Quarter, where residential inventory increased by 1.2 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2017

12 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 12 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – Good news! At 175 home sales, total homes sold during the past 12 months is the highest since 2006/2007. The lowest number of sales was 2011/2012, with only 90 home sales.

·         Condominiums – More good news! At 142 condo sales, this is the highest number of condominiums sold in a 12 month period since 2005/2006! The lowest number of condo sales was again 2011/2012, with just 42 condo sales.

·         Land – Land sales have not changed significantly for the past seven years. At 89 lots sold, this is a slight improvement and the highest number since 2009/2010. But this is only 29 lots more than the lowest number (2012/2013) and just 20% of the market high of 442 lot sales for 2005/2006.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Not such good news. The average sales price declined by more than $20,000, compared to the previous 12 month period. For the past six years, the average St Croix home sales price has been between a low of $336,000 (2013/2014) and a high of $392,000 (2015/2016)

·         Condominiums – The $189,246 average condo sales price was $30,000 more than the previous 12 month period. This is the highest average condominium sales price since 2011/2012.  

·         Land – Average lot sales price is unchanged from the previous 12 month period, at $75,822. The average land sales price has changed very little over the past five years, from a low of $66,800 for 2012/2013 to a high of $76,590 for 2015/2016.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – The total residential market is unchanged from the previous 12 month period; more homes sold, but at a slightly lower price. The total residential market, at $64.8 million, is about 2/3 of the market high of $93.6 million in 2005/2006.

·         Condominiums – Excellent news! At $26.9 million, this is the highest total market since 2005/2006 ($40.1 million) and $8 million more than the previous 12 month period. The market low was $8.8 million for 2011/2012.

·         Land – The total market improve by $2 million over the previous 12 month period, but is only 15% of the height of the market in 2005/2006.

Conclusion

Compared to 12 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales have decreased by 45% ($80.9 million)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales have increased by $12 million for the period of July 2016 through June 2017

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2017

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past seven years, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) increased each year through 2016 and more than doubled (from 14% to 32%) over the 7 year period. This price range now represents one third of the St Croix home market.

·         The second tier (($200,000 to $400,000) has consistently represented nearly 1/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix over the 7 year period. Nearly 2/3 of all homes for sale on St Croix are currently listed for $400,000 or less.

·         Over the 7 year period, homes listed from more than $400,000 have decreased by 20%, from 56% of the market to 36% of all homes for sale on St. Croix in May 2017.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) has more than doubled over the 7 year period, from 9% of total market in 2010 to 23% of the total St Croix condominium market in 2017.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has decreased by 12%, when compared to May 2010, when this price range represented 50% of all St Croix condominiums for sale.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 now comprise approximately 40% of the total market, as they did seven years ago. In 2013, 2014, and 2016, this segment of the market represented only 30% of all St Croix condominiums for sale.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) has more than doubled over the 7 year period, from 20% of total market in 2010 to 45% of all lots for sale in 2017.

·         The second tier ($50,000 to $100,000) has decreased by 11% over the 7 year period, from 35% of total market in 2010 to 24% of all lots for sale in 2017.

·         Lots listed for more than $100,000 have decreased by 13% over the 7 year period, from 45% of the St Croix land market in 2010 to 32% in May 2017.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2017

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

7 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (20 homes) compared to May 2011.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 and has been steadily declining since then. Current inventory (81 condos) is less than half of the May 2011 condominium inventory of 194 condominiums.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011, steadily declining until 2014 and has continually increased since then. Current inventory is slightly lower (31 lots) compared to

May 2011.

May Pending Sale Levels

7 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2015 (85 pending residential sales), at more than twice the May 2011 figure of 41 pending homes sales. The May 2017 pending sales figures were slightly lower, at 75 pending home sales, but still significantly higher than the 2011 trough 2015 May pending home sales.

Condominium

For the past 5 years, May pending condominium sales have been in the mid-20 rage, with the exception of May 2016, when there were 34 pending condominium sales in mid-May.

Land

Pending land sales (34 for May 2017) have almost returned to the May 2011 level of 35 pending land sales.

2017 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2017 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict there will be approximately 30 more homes sold than 2016 BUT pending sales tell a different story, so no prediction.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be nearly as the same number of condominiums sold as in 2016 BUT pending sales tell a somewhat different story, so no prediction.

Land

Land sales have nearly returned to the 2011 levels! This is the segment of the St Croix real estate market showing the most improvement, but there is a lot of inventory to sell; the current rate of sales predicts about 20% of the inventory should sell during 2017.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2017

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2017 is the 9^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008.

The obvious question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

9 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, at 340 homes for sale, and has continually declined each year since. Current residential inventory levels are now lower, at 239 homes on the market, than at the beginning of the recovery in 2009, when there were 266 homes on the market.

·         Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums on the market. The current level of 97 condominiums for sale is the lowest inventory level of the 9 year period.

·         Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. There was            a slight decline during the 2013 to 2015 period. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, with 528 lots for sale in March 2017.  

Residential Sales & 2017 Predictions

The number of units sold during the first quarter has consistently under predicted the total number of sales for the year. The average of the under prediction over the 8 year period is 20%.

The average 1^st quarter sales price has, since 2012, been within 12% of the annual average sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be slightly over 200; this would most homes sold in any year since 2002, a 15 year high!

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $350,000 range, about the same as 2016.

Condominium Sales & 2017 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Since 2012, the 1^st quarter units sold have underestimated the annual total number of units sold by about 13%.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the mid-160 unit range, based on the past 8 years. But there are fewer than 100 condominiums in the inventory – interesting!

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $190,000 range, very similar to the 1^st quarter average condominium sales price.

Land Sales & 2017 Predictions

The average under prediction of total lot sales for the 9 year period is 21%. However, the predicted annual number of sales, based on 1^st quarter sales, is the highest on 9 years. A sign of market recovery!

On average, over the 8 year period, 1^st quarter sales prices have underestimated the annual average sales price by 6%.

Here is the prediction for 2017 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be more than 100, for the first time in 9 years, and possibly as high as 130!

·         The 2017 average lot sales price may just top $100,000, which means that “big view” lots and acreage are finally selling!

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2017©

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 14 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 14 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Number of homes sold on St Thomas has been the same for the past three years (95 homes). Over the 14 year period, St Croix has seen a high of 188 homes sold (2006) and a low of 88 homes sold (2012). During 2016, 169 homes sold on St Croix; this is a 21% increase over 2015 (140 home sales) and a 2% decrease from 2003 (173 home sales).

·         The most homes sold annually for both islands during this 14 year period was 2004 for St Thomas (118 homes sales) and 2006 for St Croix (188 home sales). For St Thomas, 2016 homes sales were 80% of the market high and 90% of the market high for St Croix.

Average Sales Price

·         At the beginning of this 14 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·         From 2004 until the present, the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2016, the average St Thomas homes price was 36% higher ($566,513) than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2016 was 15% lower ($352,232) than the 2003 average sales price.

·         The average sale price of a home on St Croix for 2016 ($352,232) was 62% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($566,513).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 14 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during four years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. For the first time in five years, since 2012, the total St Croix residential market ($59.5 Million) exceed the total St Thomas market ($53.8 Million), by $5.7 Million.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

February 2017

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 14 Year Look

 Total Number of Properties Sold

·        More homes, condominiums, and lots sold in 2016 than were sold during 2015

·        Number of homes sold during 2016 (169) exceeds all years since 2007 (177 home sales).

·        Number of condominiums sold during 2016 (124) exceeds all years since 2006 (162 condo sales).

·        Number of lots sold during 2017 (76) exceeds all years since 2011 (79 lots sold).

Average Sales Price

·        The 2016 average home sales price ($352,232) was 13% lower ($51,322) than the average home sale price for 2015 ($403,554). It was, however, an improvement over 2013 ($319,450) and 2014 ($332,950) and is very similar to the average home sale price of 2005 ($355,100).

·        The 2016 average condominium sales price ($188,071) was 2% lower ($4,372) than the average condo sales price for 2015 ($192,443). It was an improvement over the 2012 – 2014 period, with an average condominium sales price of $154,000.

·        Only 2011 and 2013 saw lower average lot sales prices than the average 2016 lot sales price of $72,303, which was also 8% lower ($6,732) than the average lot sales price for 2015 ($79,035).

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·        The total residential market increased by 5%, from $56.5 million for 2015 to $59.5 million for 2016. This is the largest total residential market since 2008 ($61.6 Million).

·        The total condominium market increased 12%, from $20.8 million for 2015 to $23.3 million for 2016. For the previous 13 years, only 2005 ($34.7 million) and 2006 ($30.7 million) exceeded the 2016 total condominium market.

·        The total land market increased 10%, from $5.0 million for 2015 to $5.5 million for 2016. This is the largest total land market since 2012 ($5.9 Million).

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2017

5 Year Home Sales Price Trends ©

The average sales price of a home on St Croix has decreased by approximately $41,000 (10%) since 2012 and nearly $51,000 (13%) when comparing 2016 to 2015.

Total number of homes sold has increased by 90% (80 homes) since 2012 and by 21% (29 homes) when comparing 2016 to 2015.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 14% ($97,217).  When comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 13% ($88,000).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased by 67% (8 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, 5 fewer homes sold in 2016.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 141% ($506,153); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 39% ($225,473).

The number of homes sold in a year has tripled since 2012 (from 10 to 30); when comparing 2016 to 2015, 5 more homes sold in 2016.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 58% ($117,862); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 4% ($12,729).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased 60% (9 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, twice as many homes sold as the previous year.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 6% ($15,351); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 12% ($35,621).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased by 2 homes since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, total number of homes sold increased by 4 homes.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 36% ($167,015); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 4% ($25,909).

The number of homes sold in a year has increased 69% (9 homes) since 2012; when comparing 2016 to 2015, total number of homes sold more than doubled (from 10 homes to 22 homes).

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 68% ($64,500); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price increased 13% ($18,688).

Four times as many homes sold during 2016 (8 homes) as compared to 2012 (2 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, the same number of homes sold both years.

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 18% ($46,562); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price increased 21% ($36,816).

More than twice as many homes sold during 2016 (13 homes) as compared to 2012 (5 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, 4 more homes sold in 2016 (13 homes) as did in 2015 (13 homes).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 5 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 1% ($2,625); when comparing 2016 sales figures to 2015, the average home sales price decreased 6% ($13,525).

More than twice as many homes sold during 2016 (22 homes) as compared to 2012 (10 homes); when comparing 2016 to 2015, one less home sold in 2016.

Observations

Average home sales prices in two areas of the island consistently exceed the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices are about “average”:

·         East End A

·         Company

·         Queen

More homes sold in all quarters during 2016, when compared to 2015, with the exception of:

·         East End B

·         West End

Compared to 2015, the island wide average home sale price decreased 13%. All quarters saw decreased average home sale price with the exception of:

·         King

·         Prince

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw higher average home sales prices:

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

Compared to 2012, these quarters saw lower average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Prince

·         West End

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

December 2016

Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2016, there were 27 active and 6 pending home sales in East End B, with 20 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 1.7 year supply of homes for sale

[27 + 6] / 20 = 1.7 Years

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory has decreased by one year and average sales price is about 46% ($278,958) lower

($888,908 vs $609,950)

Compared to last year, average time on the market has increased by 6 months; average sales price has decreased by about 4% ($637,077 vs $609,950)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about 19 months (2.6 years vs 1 year); average sales price has decreased by about 25% ($370,846 vs $279,538)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is unchanged at 1 year;

average sales price has decreased by less than 1% ($281,714 vs $279,538)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by 1.5 years

(8.2 years vs 6.7 years); average sales price increased about 36%

($79,929 vs $108,800)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 7 months

(7.3 years vs 6.7 years); average sales price increased by about 35%

($80,787 vs $108,800)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, home inventory has decreased by almost a year (11 months); average home sale price increased by about 18%

 ($307,597 vs $361,979)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by one year; average sales price decreased by about 43% ($631,295 vs $361,979)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by about 19 months (3 years vs 1.4 years); the average condominium sales price decreased about 8% ($242,556 vs $222,786)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by about 2 months

(1.2 years vs 1.4 years); average sales price has decreased by about 8%

($242,965 vs $222,786)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory is unchanged at 5.3 years; average lot sales price has increased by about 25% ($54,421 vs $67,900)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by 7 years

(12.3 years vs 5.3 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 28% ($93,571 vs $67,900)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by more than 5 years (7.0 years vs 1.8 years); average home sales price has increased about 21% ($275,571 vs $333,239)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by nearly 2 years (3.7 years vs 1.8 years); average home sales price has decreased about 3%

($342,409 vs $333,239)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 18 months (2.3 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price increased by about 8%

 ($124,992 vs $135,559)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by about 10 months

(1.6 years vs 0.8 years); average sales price has increased by about 11%

($122,610 vs $135,559)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by more than 5 years

(3.8 years vs 9.2 years); average sales price has increased to about 60%

($66,433 vs $106,500)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by 7.5 years

(16.7 years vs 9.2 years) while average sales price has increased about 473% ($22,500 vs $106,500)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 2 months  (2.9 years vs 2.7 years) while average sales priced decreased by about 30%

($427,342 vs $296,020)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by about 2 months (2.9 years vs 2.7 years); average sales price increased by about 17%

($253,171 vs $296,020)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by nearly 6 years (6.8 years vs 1 year); average condominium sales price decreased by about 4% ($102,250 vs $98,462)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by about 4.7 years (5.7 years vs 1 year); average sales price has increased about 11%

($88,333 vs $98,462)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by 4 years

(16.2 years vs 20.3 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 19% ($61,000 vs $72,625)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by 12.5 years

(7.8 years vs 20.3 years); the average lot sales price increased about 92%

($37,889 vs $72,625)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by more than 2 years

(3.3 years vs 1.29 years); average home sales price increased by about 14%

($592,312 vs $677,762)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 1.5 years

(2.9 years vs 1.2 years); average home sales price has increased about 28%

($529,444 vs $677,762)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by nearly 4.5 years (4.7 years vs 0.3 years); average sales price has decreased by about 37% ($440,000 vs $276,125)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 6 months

(0.8 years vs 0.3 years); average sales price increased by about 15%

($239,670 vs $276,125)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by almost 7 years

(14 years vs 7.2 years); average lot sales price increased by about 12%

($59,333 vs $66,667)

Compared to last year, land inventory has increased by 3.3 years

(3.9 years vs 7.2 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 32%

($98,671 vs $66,667)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 20 months 

(4 years vs 2.3 years); average home sales price also decreased by about 36%

($247,800 vs $159,250)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has increased by about 4 months

(2 years vs 2.3 years); average residential sales price increased by about 24% ($128,833 vs $159,250)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

5 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the 12 month period ending November 2011.

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 3 years (4 years vs 7 years);

average lot sales price has decreased about 45% ($76,667 vs $42,500)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, there is about 2 months more residential inventory

(2.6 years vs 2.4 years); the average residential sales price decreased about 12% ($239,519 vs $210,846)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by nearly a year

(3.3 years vs 2.4 years); average residential sales price increased by about 20%

($176,056 vs $210,846)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased by 2 years (3.7 years vs 1.8 years); average condominium sales price decreased by about 41% ($288,333 vs $170,625)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory has increased by 6 months

(1.3 years vs 1.8 years); average condominium sale price decreased by about 16% ($202,000 vs $170,625)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has increased by 6 months

(9.3 years vs 9.8 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 48%

($50,714 vs $26,249)

Compared to last year, land inventory has decreased by more than 5 years

(4.5 years vs 9.8 years); average lot sales price has decreased by about 63%

($70,985 vs $26,249)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 5 years ago, residential inventory has decreased by about 16 months  (2.9 years vs 1.6 years); average home sale price has increased by about 28%  ($157,512 vs $200,875)

Compared to last year, residential inventory has decreased by about 5 months

(2 years vs 1.6 years); average home sale price decreased by about 10%

($223,800 vs $200,875)

Condominium

            Compared to 5 years ago, condominium inventory has increased by 20 months (2.3 years vs 4 years); average condominium sale price increased by about 18% ($146,250 vs $172,500)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by about 3.6 year

(5 months vs 4 years); average condominium sales price increased by about 60% ($107,714 vs $172,500)

Vacant Land

Compared to 5 years ago, land inventory has decreased by 1.4 years

(10.9 years vs 9.5 years); average lot sales price has increased by about 92% ($32,222 vs $61,750)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by about 6 years

(15.6 years vs 9.5 years); average lot sales price decreased by about 34%

($93,279 vs $61,750)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2016

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014, 2105 and 2016

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

2016

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

1.7 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

2016

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

0.75 sellers for every buyer; condos are selling in less than 1 year on the market

Vacant Land

37 land sales closed January through October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January through October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

2016

64 land sales closed January through October; there were 551 lots for sale

8.6 sellers for every buyer

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium