Report and Graphs of St. Croix Real Estate Sales

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

130 home sales closed January through October; there were 200 homes for sale

166 home sales closed January through October; there were 143 homes for sale

162 home sales closed January through October; there were 218 homes for sale

136 home sales closed January through October; there were 129 homes for sale

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

92 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 81 condos for sale

94 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 47 condos for sale

116 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 73 condos for sale

71 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 78 condos for sale

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2020 % of Sales	2020 Sales	2019 % of Sales	2019 Sales	2018 % of Sales	2018 Sales	2017 % of Sales	2017 Sales	2016 % of Sales	2016 Sales	2015 % of Sales	2015 Sales	2014 % of Sales	2014 Sales	Sales Price
32%	44	36%	59	40%	66	41%	53	41%	58	41%	45	31%	42	Under $200K
29%	39	28%	46	28%	46	25%	32	31%	45	31%	34	36%	48	$200K - $400K
16%	22	15%	25	19%	31	15%	18	14%	20	13%	14	18%	24	$400K - $600K
10%	14	9%	14	8%	13	8%	11	6%	8	9%	10	10%	14	$600K - $800K
2%	3	6%	10	3%	5	5%	7	5%	7	3%	3	3%	4	$800K - $1 Million
10%	14	5%	8	3%	5	7%	9	3%	5	5%	5	1%	2	Over $1 Million

2020 % of Sales	2020 Sales	2019 % of Sales	2019 Sales	2018 % of Sales	2018 Sales	2017 % of Sales	2017 Sales	2016 % of Sales	2016 Sales	2015 % of Sales	2015 Sales	2014 % of Sales	2014 Sales	Sales Price
7%	5	19%	22	14%	13	28%	26	26%	28	23%	20	38%	38	Under $100K
31%	22	37%	43	46%	43	49%	45	40%	42	45%	39	43%	43	$100K - $200K
37%	26	22%	26	24%	23	15%	14	19%	20	17%	15	13%	13	$200K - $300K
22%	16	18%	21	15%	14	6%	6	13%	14	13%	11	6%	6	$300K - $500K
3%	2	3%	4	1%	1	1%	1	2%	2	4%	3	1%	1	Over $500K

2019 % of Sales	2019 Sales	2019 % of Sales	2019 Sales	2018 % of Sales	2018 Sales	2017 % of Sales	2017 Sales	2016 % of Sales	2016 Sales	2015 % of Sales	2015 Sales	2014 % of Sales	2014 Sales	Sales Price
74%	83	62%	73	64%	58	62%	62	48%	31	52%	32	68%	25	Under $50K
12%	13	20%	24	18%	16	10%	10	30%	19	23%	14	22%	8	$50K - $100K
10%	11	17%	20	16%	14		0	20%	13	21%	13	8%	3	$100K - $300K
4%	5	1%	1	2%	2	3%	3	2%	1	5%	3	3%	1	Over $300K

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 with 336 homes on the market

Eleven years ago, there were three times as many condominiums on the market (236) as were for sale on 9/15/20 (77).

Under $200,000 listings (16%) are 3% higher than eleven years ago as percentage of total inventory. Compared to last year, this segment decreased by 2%.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings (26%) have remained relatively constant over the 12 year period, varying from 24% of inventory (9/15/218) to 34% of inventory (9/15/14).

$400,000 to $600 listings (11%) are unchanged from eleven years ago. Highest was 20% (9/15/10) and lowest was 10% (9/15/14).

$600,000 to $800,000 listings are 4% lower than eleven years ago. On 9/15/2009, this price range accounted for 15% of residential inventory.

$800,000 to $1,000,000 listings (9%) remained relatively constant over the twelve year period, varying form a high of 9% (2010 and 2020) to a low of 3% (2015) of total inventory.

Listings over $1,000,000 (22%) are at their highest level of the 12 year period. Lowest level was 9/15/13, at just 11% of total inventory.

Under $100,000 listings are currently only 4% of total condo listings, down from a high of 29% (9/15/13).

$100,000 to $200,000 listings (22%) decreased by 4% of total inventory since last year. On 9/15/09, this price range represented 47% of the total condominium inventory.

$200,000 to $300,000 listings are at 32% of total inventory, down 5% from last year.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings, at 33% of total inventory, are the highest level of the 12 year period. Lowest level was just 7% on 9/15/13.

Listings over $500,000 represent 9% of the total condominium market, about the same as 11 years ago.

Under $50,000 listings are 6% higher than eleven years ago, at 27%. The highest percentage of inventory (44%) was 9/15/17.

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have remained relatively constant, now representing 30% of inventory, as they did eleven years ago. Highest level was 34% in 2011, lowest was 25% (2015, 2017, and 2018).

$100,000 to $300,000 listings are 6% lower than eleven years ago, currently at 27%. Lowest percentage was 9/15/17, at 22% of total land inventory.

Listings over $300,000 are nearly the same as eleven years ago at 17% of total land market. Lowest levels were 2013, 2016, and 2017 when this segment of the market decreased to 9% of total land listings.

Residential sales on St Thomas increased 20% (9 homes) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the number of homes sold increased 24%

Condominium sales increased 23% (12 condos) on St Thomas, no increase on St Croix over the eight year period.

Vacant land sales on St Thomas increased 86% (18 lots) over the eight year period. On St Croix, land sales increased 95% (39 lots) over the eight year period.

The average St Thomas residential sales price increased 7% ($44,496) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the average home sales price increased 52% ($149,401) over the eight year period.

Median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less.

For St Thomas, the median home sales price is 10% higher ($53,060) than eight years ago. On St Croix, the median home sales price increased 20% ($55,000) over the eight year period.

The average St Thomas condominium sales price increased 18% ($39,855) over the eight year period. On St Croix, average sales price increased 44% ($74,332).

Over the eight year period, the median condominium sales price increased 28% ($48,750) on St Thomas and 56% ($80,500) on St Croix.

The average St Thomas land sales price decreased 1% ($947) over the eight year period. On St Croix, average land sales price increased 89% ($38,524) over the eight year period.

On St Thomas, the median lot sales price decreased 17% ($14,500) compared to eight years ago. On St Croix, the median lot sales price increased 6% ($2,000) compared to eight years ago.

The St Thomas total residential market increased 27% ($8.4 million) over the past eight years. On St Croix, total residential market increased 91% ($21.4 million) and exceeds St Thomas by

The St Thomas total condominium market increased 36% ($5.3 million) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the total condominium market increased 46% ($4.2 million) over the eight year period.

The St Thomas total land market increased 83% ($1.9 million) over the eight year period. On St Croix, total land market increased 267%

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

There is now a 1.8 year supply of homes and a 1.4 year supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Compared to eight years ago, average home sales price increased by 32%, from $575,667 in 2012 to $760,459 for 2020.

Average condominium sales price decreased 3%, from $382,500 in 2012 to $371,475 for 2020.

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Average residential sale price ($626,058) is 30% higher than eight years ago ($481,712)

Condominium average sale price ($192,875) is 6% lower than eight years ago ($204,667)

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by about 2.5 years, to a 1.3 year supply of homes.

Condominium inventory sell off was dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units eight years ago to a current 1.1 year supply of condominiums for sale.

Homes and condominiums both experienced average sales price increases, compared to eight years ago.

Average home sale price increased 52% ($99,958), from $191,269 in 2012 to $291,227 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condo sale price increased 70% ($74,877), from $106,250 eight years ago to $181,127 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Home inventory decreased by nearly 2 years, to a 1.3 year supply, over the eight year period.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 7 years over this period, to a 10 month supply for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average residential sale price increased 16% ($47,336) over the eight year period, from $291,289 in 2012 to $338,625 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condo sale price increased 87% ($65,425) over the eight year period, from

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

The condominium supply decreased by more than 6 years, to a 10 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average home sale price ($673,325) increased by $214,215 (47%), compared to eight years ago ($459,110).

Average condominium sale price increased by $28,000 (8%) over the eight year period, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $373,000 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Residential inventory decreased by 18 months, compared to eight years ago, to 2.3 years of inventory for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average home sale price decreased $18,833 (9%) over the eight year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $188,567 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 10 years, to a 4 month supply of condominiums.

Homes saw a sales price increase of $16,770 (8%) when compared to eight years ago, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $225,200 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Condominiums experienced a $125,227 (30%) decrease in average sale price over the eight year period, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $289,773 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Over the eight year period, residential inventory decreased by over 2 years, to a 2.3 year supply of homes for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Condominium inventory decreased by 7 years; there were no West End condominiums on the market at the end of July 2020.

Average home sale price increased $168,677 (103%) over the eight year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $332,977 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condominium sale price increased $183,700 (294%) over the eight year period, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $246,200 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Over the nine year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

Over the nine year period, the average St Croix condominium sales price increased by about $45,960.

These quarters did not experienced an increase in average condo sales price:

Residential and condominium inventories decreased to between 1 and 2 years island wide over the past nine years, with these exceptions:

15 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

· Residential – A significant drop (32%) in number of homes sold, but better than 9 of the previous 14 years, in terms of number of homes sold.

· Condominiums – Similar to the home market, a 36% drop in the number of condominiums sold, compared to the previous 12 month period. Exceeds 7 of the previous 14 years in number of condos sold.

· Land – Performed better than homes and condos with only a 23% drop in the number of lots sold, compared to the previous 12 month period. Similar to home sales; number of lots sold exceeds 9 of the previous 14 years.

· Residential – Average home sales price increased 13% over the previous 12 month period, from $359,384 to $406,753. This exceeds the average homes sale price of 11 of the previous 14 years.

· Condominiums – Average condominium sales price increased 20% compared to the previous 12 month period, from $205,401 to $247,160. This is the highest average condominium sales price of the entire 15 year period!

· Land – Average lot sales price also increase 13% over the previous 12 month period, from $64,651 to $73,290. This average lot sales price exceeded only 6 of the previous 14 years.

· Residential – The total residential market ($63.9 million) was a 23% decrease from the previous 12 month period with $83 million in residential sales. Compared to the 15 year period, total resident al sales exceed all but 4 of the previous periods.

· Condominiums – The total condominium market ($22.0 million) was also a 23% decrease from the previous 12 month period of $28.5 million. As with the residential market, only 4 of the previous 14 years exceeded this period’s total sales.

· Land – The total land market ($8.5 million) was a 13% decrease from the previous 12 month period with $9.8 million in land sales. This level of sales was exceed by 6 of the previous 14 years total land market.

Compared to 14 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales decreased 47% ($84.9 Million Dollars)

St Croix real estate sales decreased $26.9 million (22%) for the period of July 2019 through June 2020

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past decade, using 15 May inventory levels.

· The lowest price range (under $200,000) accounted for about one third of the St Croix residential inventory from 2014 through 2018. For the past two years, this segment reduced to slightly under 1/5 of the inventory. 30% of home sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $200,000 or less; 19% of inventory accounted for 30% of sales.

· The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) consistently comprised one third of all homes for sale on St Croix over the previous 10 year period. This segment is now about one fifth of the inventory. 30% of St Croix home sales over the past 12 months were between $200,000 and $400,000; 20% of inventory accounted for 30% of sales.

· Homes listed for more than $400,000 account for 60% of the inventory, as they did 10 years ago. During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 39% of all homes sold.

· Homes listed for more than $1,000,000 increased to 23% of the inventory for the past 2 years; during this same period home sales of $1,000,000 or more accounted for 4% (17 sales) of the total 399 homes sold.

· The lowest price range (under $100,000) is now just 4% of condominium inventory; this segment averaged 19% of inventory over the past 10 years. Big change!

· The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory over the previous 10 year period. It now represents only 16% of total condominium inventory

· Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 are now 80% of the inventory, a 20% increase over the previous 10 year period. 53% of condominiums sales during the past 12 months exceeded $200,000.

· The lowest price range (under $50,000) increased 9%, compared to 11 years ago, to 29%. In May 2017, this price range accounted for 45% of the inventory.

· The middle tier ($50,000 to $300,000) decreased 10% over the 10 year period, from 65% in 2010 to the current 55%.

· Lots listed for more than $300,000 are at their highest level in 11 years, at 15% of inventory. This segment of the inventory averaged 11% over the previous 10 year period.

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 with 330 homes for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 163 homes for sale is 51% lower (167 homes)

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 with 230 condominiums for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 77 condos is 1/3 of the May 2012 condominium inventory.

Land inventory peaked in 2011 with 575 lots for sale and steadily declining until 2014, then began to again increase. Current inventory of 433 lots is 75% of the 2011 inventory.

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2016, at 85 pending residential sales, and have been robust since. Current pending residential sales (68) are 166%

Condominium pending sales peaked in May 2019 with 38 pending condo sales. The current level of 19 pending sales is exceeded by the previous 7 years, only 2011 and 2012 saw a lower level of pending sales.

Pending land sales remained relatively constant over the first 8 years. The 2020 figure of 49 pending land sales is the highest for the entire 10 year period.

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2020 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

The first four months predict only 123 home sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2013.

The first four months predict there will be 87 condominium sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2012

Using the first 4 months sales as a predictor, only 84 land sales are forecast for 2020. Appears to be a return to the 2011 through 2016 lot sales levels, disappointing.

2020 is the 12^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 and the 2020 pandemic are not helpful.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

· Residential inventory peaked in 2012, with 340 homes for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 121 homes for sale in 2019. Inventory levels have now returned to the 2018 level of 172 homes for sale.

· Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 46 condos on the market in 2019. The current level of 70 condominiums for sale has not quite returned to the 2018 level.

· Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. Since then, land inventory has been between 566 lots for sale and 443 lots for sale (2020).

Until 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. In 2018, 1^st quarter sales underestimated actual number of homes sales by 40%. In 2019, 1^st quarter sales slightly overestimated the total annual sales number. 2020 1^st quarter sales predict only 104 home sales for the year, a 47% decrease from 2019.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2020 1^st quarter average sales price predicts an annual average sales price of nearly $200,000 more than the 2018 average home sales price, but also a significant (47%) decrease in the total number of homes sold.

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Beginning in 2014, there have been more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. The prediction for 2020 (76 condominium sales) is a decrease to about 60% of the 2019 number of sales (126).

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

· Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 70 condo range, approximately the number of condos for sale.

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold have been trending in the right direction since 2014. However, the prediction for 2020 is only 80 annual lot sales, a 45% decrease from 2019.

From 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price was in the $70,000 range. Since 2018, average sales price dropped about $5,000, to the mid-$60,000 range.

· Total number of lots sold will be in the 100 range, about 15% lower than 2019.

· The 2020 average lot sales price will be in the $65,000 range, similar to the previous 2 years.

· Over the 17 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

· During 2019, more homes sold on both St Thomas (115) and St Croix (197) than had sold during any of the previous 16 years, with the exception of 2018.

· Over the 17 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of home sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

· During 2019, 82 more homes were sold on St Croix, when compared to St Thomas.

· Compared to 2018, 18 fewer homes were sold on St Thomas during 2019 and 10 fewer homes were sold on St Croix during 2019.

· At the beginning of this 17 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

· For the past 16 years (since 2004), the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

· For 2019, the average St Thomas homes price was 48% higher, at $617,848, than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2019 was 3% lower, at $403,914, than the 2003 average sales price.

· For 2019, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($403,914) was 65% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($617,848).

· This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

· During this 17 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during six years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

· During 2019, the total St Croix residential market exceeded the total St Thomas residential market by about $8.6 Million.

· Number of home sales on St Croix remains at a historic high level (197), only in 2018 were more homes sold (206). The next highest number of homes sold was 188 during 2006, the height of the real estate boom.

· During 2019, 126 condominiums sold on St Croix, very similar numbers to the previous 5 years. Nearly twice as many condos sold during 2005 (208 condos). The fewest condos sold in 2012, when only 34 condominiums sold.

· There were 145 lots sales in 2019, the highest number of lots sold on St Croix since 2009.

· The average 2019 home sales price ($403,914) was $9,525 lower than the 2003 average home sales price of $413,439. Since 2012, the average home sale price has varied between the low $300,000 range to $400,000.

· The 2019 average condominium sales price ($220,498) is $75,675 higher than the average condo price in 2003 ($144,823). Since 2015, the average condominium sales price has remained in the $180,000 to $220,000 range.

· The average 2019 lot sales price ($64,821) is $26,494 lower than the average lot sale price for 2003 ($91,315). Over the 17 year period, only 2013 saw a lower average lot sales price ($50,290).

· The 2019 total residential market ($79.6 million) was just $6 million lower than the height of the St Croix real estate market in 2006 ($85.3 million)! While the average sales price has not increased, the number of homes sold on St Croix continues on its upward trend.

· The 2019 total condominium market ($27.8 million) was exceeded only by the total market in 2005 ($34.7 million) and 2006 ($30.7 million). Since 2014, total condos sold has been in the 108 to 126 condo range. Average sales price increased by $25,000 since last year and is exceeded only by 2007 ($252,000) and 2009 ($249,000).

· The 2019 total land market ($9.4 million) is the best performance we have seen since 2009 ($13.3 million). More lots were sold in 2019 (145) than in any year since 2008 (224 lot sales). This market segment is moving in the right direction, but has a long recovery ahead.

8 Year St Croix Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix decreased by $63,061 over the 7 year period; this is a 16% decrease.

Total number of homes sold increased 130% (116 homes) since 2012.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 25% ($170,384 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 1 home compared to 8 years ago;

12 homes sold in 2012, 13 homes sold in 2019.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 29% ($246,337 decrease).

Four times as many homes sold in 2019 (40) compared to 8 years ago, when 10 homes sold.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 50% ($101,260) increase.

The number of homes sold in a year nearly doubled,

from 15 home sales in 2012 to 26 home sales in 2019.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 24%

($58,515 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year has doubled since 2012, from 22 homes sold in 2012 to 44 home sales in 2019.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 44% ($199,853 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by one home;

13 homes sales closed in 2012, 14 homes sales closed in 2019.

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 64%

($70,850 increase).

Seven times as many homes closed in 2019 (14), compared to 2012 (2 home sales).

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 17%

($43,321 decrease).

Nearly 4 times as many homes sold in 2019 (19) compared to

2012 (5 home sales).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 8 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 42%

($84,672 increase).

Twice as many homes sold during 2019 (22 home sales) than during 2012

(10 home sales).

Observations

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island consistently exceed the

island wide “average” home sales price:

· East End B

· East End A

· Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in two areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

· King

· Prince

Center island and west end average home sales prices are about “average”:

· Company

· Queen

· West End

More homes sold in all quarters during 2019, when compared to 2012.

Compared to 2018, the island wide average home sale price increased 23%.

These quarters experienced increased average home sales prices:

· East End B

· East End A

· Queen

· Northside A & B

· King

· West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters had higher average home sales prices:

· East End B

· Company

· Queen

· Northside A & B

· King

· West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters had lower average home sales prices:

· East End A

· Prince

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager