St. Croix Realtors Joe & Julie San Martin

May 2023

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2016 with 262 homes for sale and declined through 2022. Current inventory of 115 homes for sale is 44% of the number of homes for sale in 2016.

Condominium

Condominium inventory peaked in 2014 with 171 condominiums for sale and declined through 2022. Condominium inventory reduction is even greater; current inventory of 38 condos is just 22% of 2014 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2016 / 2017 with 544 lots for sale and slowly declining through 2023. Current inventory of 324 lots is 60% of the 2016 / 2017 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

May 2023 residential pending sales (51) are nearly identical to the number of pending residential sales 10 years ago (50). The average number of pending residential sales over the 10 year period is 69; the May 2023 number of pending sales (51) is 74% of the 10 year average.

Condominium

May 2023 condominium pending sales (23) are slightly lower than 10 years ago (25). Current pending condominium sales (23) are 77% of the 10 year average of 30 pending condominium sales.

Land

May 2023 pending land sales (55) are more than double pending contracts 10 years ago (20).  Current pending land sales (55) are 122% of the 10 year average of 45 pending land sales in May.

2023 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2023 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months home sales predict 120 home sales during 2023; pending contracts predict 153 home sales during 2023. Inventory levels of 115 homes on the market suggest the lower number to be more likely.

Condominium

The first four months condominium sales predict 87 condominium sales during 2023; pending contracts predict 69 condominium sales during 2023. Inventory levels of only 38 condominiums on the market suggest the lower number to be more likely.

Land

The first four months land sales predict 147 land sales during 2023; pending contracts predict 165 land sales during 2023. With ample land inventory and dwindling home and condo inventory, it is entirely possible there will be 165 land sales during 2023, a 19% reduction from the number of lots sold (203) during 2022.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2023

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2022 was the 15^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 and the 2020 pandemic were not helpful.

The St Croix real estate market made a strong recovery, is now beginning to show signs of contraction.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

15 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, with 340 homes for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 85 homes for sale in 2022. Residential inventory is now increasing, slowly.

·       Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 46 condos on the market in 2019, inventory increased slightly in 2020 and 2021. The 2022  level of only 14 condominiums for sale has nearly tripled but continues at a very low level of only 38 condos on the market during the 1^st quarter of 2023.

·       Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. Until 2020, land inventory was between 566 lots for sale and 443 lots for sale. For the past three years, 1^st quarter land inventory has been in the low to mid-300 lot range.  

Residential Sales & 2023 Predictions

Until 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. In 2018, 1^st quarter sales underestimated actual number of homes sales by 40%. In 2019, 1^st quarter sales slightly overestimated the total annual sales number. The 2020 1^st quarter sales prediction of only 104 home sales for the year underestimated the actual number (167) by 61%. The 2021 prediction of 172 home sales was 27% low, actual number of sales was 219. The 2022 prediction was only 12% (20 homes) low. The 2023 1^st quarter prediction of 120 home sales annually is 37% lower than actual 2022 home sales of 192.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2021 and 2022 1^st quarter average sales price over-predicted annual average sales price by 12% to 15%. The 2023 1^st quarter prediction of $570,767 predicts a 26% decrease in average home sales price for 2023.

Here is the prediction for 2023 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be as predicted, around 120 homes.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $600,000 range.

Condominium Sales & 2023 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends because the sample is significantly smaller.

From 2014 through 2019 there were more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. During 2020, there were only 84 condominiums sold on St Croix. 2021 and 2022 were record-breaking years with 162 and 140 condominium sales respectively. First quarter 2023 condominium sales predict only 82 condominium sales during 2023.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, been fairly close, with the exception of 2009.

Here is the prediction for 2023 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be under 100, probably about the same as 2020.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the high $200,000 range.

Land Sales & 2023 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold have been trending in the right direction since 2014. The 2020 prediction of only 80 annual lot sales underestimate actual sales (155) by nearly 50%. The 2021 prediction of 140 lot sales underestimated actual (192) by 37%. The 2022 prediction was close. The 2023 1^st quarter figure predicts only 136 lot sales during 2023.    

From 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price was in the $70,000 range, decreasing by about $10, 00 for the subsequent 2 years. In 2020, average lot sales price retuned to the low $70,000 range, as predicted by 1^st quarter sales. The 2021 and 2022 predicted average lot sale price were about 17% and 23% low respectively. The 2023 1st quarter prediction is $102,515.

Here is the prediction for 2023 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be slightly under 200.

·         The 2023 average lot sales price will be in the $100,000 range.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2023

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 19 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 19 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Over the 19-year period, the highest number of homes sold was in 2021 for St Croix with 219 home sales and 2018 for St Thomas with 133 home sales; 2021 was nearly the same, with 132 home sales on St Thomas.

·         During 2022, 102 more homes were sold on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Over the 19-year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of homes sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

Average Sales Price

·         For the past 19 years, the annual average home sale price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2022, the average St Thomas home sale price was 109% higher, at $1,059,152, than the 2004 average sales price ($507,000).

·         The average annual home sale price on St Croix for 2022 was also 109% higher, at $771,242, than the 2004 average home sale price ($368,248).

·         For 2022, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($771,242) was 73% of the average sales price of a home on St Thomas ($1,059,152).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 19-year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during six years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

·         During 2022, the total St Croix residential market exceeded the total St Thomas residential market by about $52.8 Million.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin Team Manager

February 2023

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

An 19 Year Look

2022 Was another Record Setting Year for Home Sales, Land Continues to Rebound

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         The number of homes sold on St Croix during 2022 (192) is only 8 homes higher than during 2004, 19 years ago. The 2022 average home sale price ($771,242) was more than double the 2004 average home sale price ($368,248)

·         There were 140 condominium sales on St Croix during 2022, exceeded only by 2004 (185 condos sold), 2005 (208 condos sold), 2006 (162 condos sold), and 2021 (162 condos sold).

·         There were 203 lot sales in 2022, the highest number of sales since 2008.

Average Sales Price

·         At $771,242, the average 2022 home sales price was extraordinary, exceeding last year’s record setting average of $618,943 by $152,299!

·         The 2022 average condominium sales price ($284,681) is also the highest of this 19-year period, exceeding the next highest price of $279,013 (2021) by $5,668.

·         The average 2022 lot sales price ($134,042) is exceeded only by 2008, with an average lot sales price of $155,357.

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         The 2022 total residential market ($148.1 million) exceeded last year ($135 million), the next highest, by $13.1 million.

·         The 2022 total condominium market ($39.9 million) fell $5.3 million short of 2021’s record setting $45.2 million.

·         The 2022 total land market ($27.2 million) is the best performance we have seen since 2008 ($34.8 million).

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2023

10 Year St Croix Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix increased $452,795 over the

10-year period; this is a 142% increase.

Total number of homes sold increased 61% (73 homes) since 2013.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 228% ($1,029,313 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 4 homes, compared to 9 years ago.

21 homes sold in 2013, 25 homes sold in 2022.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 212%

($815,511 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 10 homes, compared to 9 years ago;

 23 homes sold in 2013, 33 homes sold in 2022

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 40% ($114,329 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 2 homes, compared to 9 years ago,  

from 17 home sales in 2013 to 19 home sales in 2022.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 58%

($170,829 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year doubled, from 22 homes sold in 2013 to 44 home sales in 2022.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 261% ($958,542 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year more than doubled.

7 homes sales closed in 2013, 17 home sales closed in 2022.

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 42%

($68,355 increase).

More than twice as many homes closed in 2022 (10), compared to 2013

(4 home sales).

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 35%

($104,394 increase).

Three times as many homes sold in 2022 (17) compared to

 2013 (5 home sales).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 210%

($298,212 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 6 homes, compared to 9 years ago; from 14 homes sales in 2013 to 20 homes sales in 2022.

Observations

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island consistently exceed the

island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

Center island and west end average home sales prices are about “average”:

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Prince

·         West End

More homes sold in all quarters during 2022, when compared to 2013.

Compared to 2021, the island wide average home sale price increased 25%.

All quarters experienced increased average sales prices.

Compared to 2013, all quarters experiences higher average home sale prices during 2022.

December 2022

Ten Year Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2022, there were 16 active and 3 pending home sales in East End B, with 27 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 0.7-year supply of homes for sale

[16 + 3] / 27 = 0.7 Years or 8 months

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, home inventory decreased by 1.2 years;

average sales price has more than tripled; from $461,500 to $1,435,148.

Compared to last year, average time on the market increased slightly, by 1.2 months;

average sales price increased 51% (from $949,238 to $1,435,148)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 1.7 years; average sales price increased 78%, from $244,658 to $436,276

Compared to last year, average time on the market is unchanged at about 2 months;

average sales price increased 9% (from $398,645 to $436,276)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 4 years,

from 6 years to 2 years;

average sales price increased 97% (from $70,059 to $138,051)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 1.3 years;

 average sales price decreased 21% (from $173,668 to $138,051)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, home inventory decreased 1.9 years,

from 2.5 years to 0.6 years;

 average home sale price increased 191%; from $417,060 to $1,213,621.

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 4 months;

average sales price increased 46% (from $831,653 to $1,213,621)

Condominium

Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 10.6 years

(from 10.7 years to 1 month);

average condominium sales price increased 14% (from $248,000 to $283,556)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 2 months;

average sales price decreased 9% (from $310,978 to $283,556)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 3.1 years,

from 5.3 years to 2.2 years;

average lot sales price doubled (from $62,562 to $124,992)

Compared to last year, land inventory is unchanged at 2.2 years;

average lot sales price decreased 2% (from $127,931 to $124,992)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased 2 years;

average home sales price increased 35% (from $298,529 to $402,350)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by 2 months;

 average home sales price decreased 18% (from $487,337 to $402,350)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased 3.1 years (from 3.5 years to 5 months);

average sales price increased 116% (from $107,579 to $231,848)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 5 months;

average sales price increased 8% (from $215,059 to $231,848)

Vacant Land

9 years ago, no lot sales were reported in Company Quarter, inventory is now 1.4 years;

average lot sales price for the past 12 months is $96,620

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 11 months,

 average sales price increased 3% (from $94,094 to $96,620)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 1.5 years

(from 2.2 years to 0.7 years);

average sales priced increased 74% (from $288,552 to $500,948)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 2 months;

average sales price increased 15% (from $435,593 to $500,948)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by

2.7 years (from 3.1 years to 5 months);

average condominium sales price increased 68% (from $103,429 to $173,769)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 2 months;

 average sales price increased 4% (from $166,412 to $173,769)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

7.5 years (from 9.1 years to 1.6 years);

average lot sales price increased 164% (from $47,400 to $125,100)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 6 months;

 the average lot sales price increased 75% (from $71,588 to $125,100)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 7.3 years;

average home sales price increased 259% (from $362,900 to $1,302,389)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 4 months;

 average home sales price increased 51% (from $860,104 to $1,302,389)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by

7 months (from 1.4 years to 10 months);

average sales price increased 58% (from $227,200 to $358,375)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 8 months;

average sales price decreased 9%, from $328,489 to $358,375.

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

16.1 years (from 19.3 years to 3.2 years);

average lot sales price increased 169% (from $51,333 to $137,952)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 1 year;

average lot sales price decreased 36% (from $216,458 to $137.952)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by

10.1 years (from 12 years to 1.9 years);

average home sales price increased 95% (from $103,500 to $201,850)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by

1.2 years (from 8 months to 23 months);

average residential sales price decreased 18% (from $246,545 to $201,850)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 11 months,

From 2.8 years to 1.9 years;

Average lot sales price increased 310% (from $36,300 to $148,878)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by

4 months (from 2.2 years to 1.9 years);

average lot sales price increased 46% (from $101,615 to $148,878)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by

2.1 years (from 2.7 years to 7 months);

average residential sales price increased 37% (from $289,167 to $395,221)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 7 months;

average residential sales price increased 31% (from $300,886 to $395,221)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 2.2 years, from 2.4 years to 2 months;

Average condominium sales price increased 131% (from $158,900 to $367,272).

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 5 months

average condominium sale price increased 27% (from $288,375 to $367,272)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

8.4 years (from 10.2 years to 1.8 years);

average lot sales price increased 3% (from $113,583 to $117,040)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 4 months;

average lot sales price increased 45% (from $80,833 to $117,040)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 1.5 years

(from 2.9 years to 1.4 years);

average home sale price increased 227%, from $142,200 to $464,953)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by 11 months;

average home sale price increased 1% (from $462,055 to $464,953)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 11 months (from 1.3 years to 5 months)

average condominium sales price decreased 17% (from $145,000 to $120,980)

Last year, there was no condominium inventory in West End Quarter, this year there is a 5 month inventory;

average condominium sales price decreased 51%, from $244,375 to $120,980.

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 4.1 years,

from 5.6 years to 1.5 years;

average lot sales price increased 182% (from $50,082 to $141,315)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 1.8 years;

average lot sales price increased 74% (from $81,306 to $141,315)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2022

A Tale of Two Islands

St Croix and St Thomas Real Estate Sales

Ten Year Comparison Year to Date

Number of Sales

Residential

Residential sales on St Thomas increased 52% (24 homes) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the number of homes sold increased 63% (52 homes) compared to ten years ago.

Condominium

Condominium sales increased 48% (25 condos) on St Thomas, compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the number of condos sold increased 105% (57 condos), compared to ten years ago.

Vacant Land

Vacant land sales on St Thomas increased 171% (36 lots), compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, land sales increased 258% (106 lots) compared to ten years ago.  

Residential

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas residential sales price increased 62% ($413,349) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the average home sales price increased 204% ($586,866) when compared to ten years ago.

St Thomas Home Sales Prices

St Croix Home Sales Prices

Median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less.

For St Thomas, the median home sales price is 70% higher ($360,000) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the median home sales price increased 108% ($292,000) when compared to ten years ago.

 Median Home Sales Price

Condominium

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas condominium sales price increased 70% ($157,079) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, average sales price increased 67% ($114,031) when compared to ten years ago.

St Thomas Condominium Sales Prices

St Croix Condominium Sales Prices

Compared to ten years ago, the median condominium sales price increased 87% ($151,250) on St Thomas and 73% ($105,000) on St Croix.

Median Condominium Sales Price

Vacant Land

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas land sales price increased 115% ($124,867) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, average land sales price increased 195% ($84,824) compared to ten years ago.

St Thomas Land Sales Prices

St Croix Land Sales Prices

Median Land Sales Price

On St Thomas, the median lot sales price increased 48% ($40,500) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the median lot sales price increased 86% ($29,500) compared to ten years ago.

Total Market (Millions)

The St Thomas total residential market increased 147% ($44.9 million) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, total residential market increased 397% ($93.6 million) compared to ten years ago and currently exceeds St Thomas by $41.7 million for this period.

Residential

The St Thomas total condominium market increased 152% ($17.7 million) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, the total condominium market increased 242% ($22.3 million) compared to ten years ago and currently exceeds St Thomas by $2.2 million for this period.

Condominium

The St Thomas total land market increased 478% ($11 million) compared to ten years ago. On St Croix, total land market increased 944% ($17 million) compared to ten years ago and currently exceeds St Thomas total market by $5.5 million for this period.

Vacant Land

August 2022

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 2.1 year supply of homes and a 1.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Both home and condominium inventory has depleted.

There is now a 7 month (0.6 year) supply of homes and a 4 month (0.3 year) supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sales price is the highest of this 10 year period.

Condominium average sale price is slightly lower ($27,366) than last year.

Compared to nine years ago, average home sales price increased 157%,

from $537,553 in 2013 to $1,382,492 for the 12 months ending July 2022,

an $844,939 increase.

Average condominium sales price increased 55%, from $245,639 in 2013 to $381,500 for the 12 months ending July 2022, a $135,861 increase.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 3.6 year supply of homes and a 6.4 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory decreased by about 3 years for homes, to a 6 month supply.

Inventory decreased by about 6 years for condominiums, to a 4 month (0.3 year) supply.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price ($1,112,112) is 110% higher than nine years ago ($534,803).

Condominium average sale price ($315,359) is 61% higher than nine years ago ($195,700)

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 4.8 year supply of homes and a 4 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 4 years, to a 6 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 3 years, to a 5 month supply of condominiums for sale.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased 86% ($191,318), from $221,182 in 2013 to $412,500 for the 12 months ending July 2022.

The highest average sales price ($453.731) was for the 12 month period ending

July 2021

Average condominium sale price increased 97% ($111,883), from $114,859 nine years ago to $226,742 for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 2.1 year supply of homes and a 6.4 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Home inventory decreased by more than a year, to a 10 month (0.8 year) supply, over the ten year period.

Condominium inventory decreased by 6 years over this period, to a 4 month supply for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price increased 103% ($259,336) over the ten year period, from $246,180 in 2013 to $505,516 for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Average condo sale price increased 94% ($56,038) over the ten year period, from

$92,000 in 2013 to $178,038 for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 2.6 year supply of homes and a 5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by nearly 2 years, to an 8 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 4 years, to a 4 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price ($1,267,819) increased by $815,704 (180%), compared to nine years ago ($452,115).

Average condominium sales price increased $105,400 (42%) over the ten year period, from $250,000 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to $355,400 for the 12 months ending July 2021.

The highest average condominium sales price in this quarter was for the 12 months ending July 2019 ($384,875).

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 25 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 23 years, compared to nine years ago, to 1.4 years of inventory for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased $249,200 (503%) over the ten year period, from $49,500 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to $298,700 for the 12 months

ending July 2022.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 1.4 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 3 years, to a 10 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than a year, to a 2 month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a sales price increase of $152,671 (58%) when compared to nine years ago, from $264,800 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to $417,471

for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Condominiums experienced a $201,555 (127%) increase in average sale price over the ten year period, from $158,900 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to

$360,455 for the 12 months ending July 2022.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Nine years ago (July 2013), there was a 2.7 year supply of homes and a 1.7 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Over the ten year period, residential inventory decreased by more than a year, to a 1.4 year supply of homes for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Condominium inventory decreased by 6 months, to a 1.2 year supply for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased $192,735 (108%) over the ten year period, from $179,100 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to $371,835 for the

12 months ending July 2022.

This is a $19,771 (4%) decrease from the highest average home sales price ($391,606) of the 10 year period (12 months ending July 2021).

Average condominium sale price increased $127,317 (88%) over the ten year period, from $145,000 for the 12 months ending July 2013 to $272,317

for the 12 months ending July 2022.

Conclusion

Over the ten year period, average home sale prices increased to more than $1,000,000 in these quarters:

·         East End B

·         Northside A & B

·         East End A

In the other five quarters, home sales prices were one half to one third the average of the east end and the north shore home sale prices:

·         Queen

·         Prince

·         Company

·         West End

·         King

Condominium sales prices were more consistent, with a $203,462 difference between the highest average price (East End B at $381,500) and the lowest

(Queen Qtr. at $178,038)

Both classes of inventory are severely depleted, with the highest home inventories in King and West end Quarters (1.4 years),

the highest condominium inventory in West End quarter (1.2 years).

These are the only quarters with more than a 1 year inventory of real estate.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2022

15 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

St Croix real estate market recovers

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 17 years ago –

The July 2005 / June 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – During the past 12 months, the second highest number of homes were sold on St Croix (218) for this entire 15 period, exceeded only by the July 2018 to June 2019 number of sales (231 home sales). Currently there are 99 active home listings and 61 pending home sales.

·         Condominiums – During the past 12 months, the most condominiums were sold on St Croix (163) for this entire 15 period! This level of sales is likely to decline; current inventory level is only 20 active and 40 pending condominiums.

·         Land – Number of lots sold (218) during the past 12 months is the highest level of sales since the July 2007 to June 2008 period (239 lot sales). In this category there is plenty of inventory remaining, with 324 active lot listings and 74 pending lot sales.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Average home sales price is the highest of the entire 15 year period ($765,289), exceeding last year’s second highest average price (July 2020 to June 2021) by $190,696!

·         Condominiums – Average condominium sales price ($269,659) is exceeded only by last year’s (2020 / 2021) average condominium sales price of $277,481 for this 15 year period.

·         Land – Average lot sales price ($122,659) is exceeded only by average sales price of July 2007 to June 2008 ($154, 240) for this 15 year period.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – Huge market recovery! Exceeds last years’s next highest total market (July 2020 to June 2021) by $46.7 million dollars. Why? For the first time in the entire 15 year period homes listed for more than $1,000,000 (approximately 38% of inventory) account for approximately 22% of all sales. From 2007 through 2020, homes listed for more than $1,000, 000 accounted, on average, for about 5% of all sales. Last year sales over $1 million accounted for 12% of all home sales.

·         Condominiums – The past 12 months sales ($45.9 million) represent the highest total market of the entire 15 year period.

·         Land – The total land market ($26.7 million) is exceeded only by total sales of $36.9 million for the period of July 2007 to June 2008 and exceeds the previous 12 month period by $6.9 million.

Conclusion

Compared to 15 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales more than doubled, from $119 million

(July 2007 to June 2008) to $239 million

(July 2021 to June 2022)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales increased by $65 million,

from $174 million to $239.

The St Croix real estate market recovery continues!

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2022

Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past decade, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) accounted for about one quarter to one third of the St Croix residential inventory from 2013 through 2018. This segment now represents only 13% of inventory. 17% of home sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $200,000 or less; 13% of inventory accounted for 17% of all sales.

·         The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) has declined approximately 5%, from 1/3 of total inventory to 28%. 22% of St Croix home sales over the past 12 months were between $200,000 and $400,000; 28% of inventory accounted for 22% of sales.

·         Homes listed for more than $400,000 account for 59% of the inventory, an increase of 16% over the decade. During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 61% of all homes sold.

·         Homes listed for more than $1,000,000 increased to 29% of the inventory (68 homes), from just 10%  decade ago. During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 19% (41 homes) of the total 216 homes sold. A significant change in the St Croix real estate market!

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) was 22% of condominium inventory 10 years ago; in May 2022 it was only 8% of total inventory. 5% of condominium sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $100,000 or less.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory until 2020. In May 2022 this segment was 20% (one fifth) of total condominium inventory. 23% of all sales over the past 12 months were between $100,000 and $200,000.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 increased to 72% of inventory, compared to only 30% of condo inventory 10 years ago. 72% of the 163 condominiums sold over the past 12 months were sold for more than $200,000.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) decreased by 17%, compared to 10 years ago, from 37% to 20% of total inventory. 38% of all land sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $50,000 or less.

·         The middle tier ($50,000 to $300,000) accounted for 52% of land inventory 10 years ago. In May 2022, this segment accounted for 60%, very little change. 56% of all land sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were between $50,000 and $300,000.

·         Lots listed for more than $300,000 increased 12%, compared to 10 years ago, from 10% to 22% of total listing inventory. 6% of land sales on St Croix over the past 12 months (12 parcels) were sold for more than $300,000.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2022

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

12 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 with 330 homes for sale and declined through 2022. Current inventory of 90 homes for sale is only 27% of the number of homes for sale in 2012.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 with 230 condominiums for sale and declined through 2022. Condominium inventory reduction is even greater; current inventory of 26 condos is just 11% of 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011 with 575 lots for sale and slowly declining through 2022. Current inventory of 332 lots is 58% of the 2011 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

12 Year Review

Residential

May 2022 residential pending sales (59) are 63% of the number of pending sales when compared to May 2021 (94 pending sales). The average number of pending residential sales over the 12 year period is 64; the May 2022 number of pending sales (59) is slightly lower than the 12 year average.

Condominium

May 2021 condominium pending sales (42) were the highest of the 12 year period. Current pending condominium sales (32) are slightly higher than the 12 year average of 27 pending condominium sales.

Land

May 2021 pending land sales (88) were also the highest of the 12 year period.  Current pending land sales (79) are nearly twice the 12 year average of 40 pending land sales in May.

2022 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2022 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months home sales predict 219 home sales during 2022; pending contracts predict 191 home sales during 2022. Inventory levels of only 90 homes on the market suggest the lower number to be more accurate.

Condominium

The first four months condominium sales predict 171 condominium sales during 2022; pending contracts predict 121 condominium sales during 2022. Inventory levels of only 26 condominiums on the market suggest the lower number to be more accurate.

Land

The first four months land sales predict 216 land sales during 2022; pending contracts predict 230 land sales during 2022. With ample land inventory and dwindling home and condo inventory, it is entirely possible there will be 230 land sales during 2022, a level of sales not seen since 2008.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2022

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2021 is the 13^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 and the 2020 pandemic were not helpful. Market is now showing strong signs of recovery.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

13 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, with 340 homes for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 85 homes for sale in 2022 with a slight anomaly of 172 homes for sale during this period in 2020.

·       Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 46 condos on the market in 2019, inventory increased slightly in 2020 and 2021. The current level of 14 condominiums for sale is extraordinary!

·       Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. Until 2020, land inventory was between 566 lots for sale and 443 lots for sale. This year there was a moderate decline in inventory, with only 351 lots for sale.  

Residential Sales & 2022 Predictions

Until 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. In 2018, 1^st quarter sales underestimated actual number of homes sales by 40%. In 2019, 1^st quarter sales slightly overestimated the total annual sales number. 2020 1^st quarter sales prediction of only 104 home sales for the year underestimated the actual number (167) by 61%. The 2021 prediction of 172 home sales was 27% low, actual number of sales was 219. The 2022 prediction is exactly the same as 2021 – 172 home sales.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2021 1^st quarter average sales price predicted annual average sales price of $216,000 was about 12% low. The 2022 1^st quarter prediction of $894,558 represents a 45% increase over the 2021 average sale price.

Here is the prediction for 2022 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be as predicted, around 172 homes.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $800,000 range.

Condominium Sales & 2022 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

From 2014 through 2019 there were more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. During 2020, there were only 84 condominiums sold on St Croix. 2021 was a record-breaking year with 162 condominium sales. First quarter 2022 condominium sales predict 152 condominium sales during 2022.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2022 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 100-plus range, far exceeding the number of condos currently for sale.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $300,000 range.

Land Sales & 2022 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold have been trending in the right direction since 2014. The 2020 prediction of only 80 annual lot sales underestimate actual sales (155) by nearly 50%. The 2021 prediction of 140 lot sales underestimated actual (192) by 37%. 1^st quarter figure predicts 196 lot sales during 2022.    

From 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price was in the $70,000 range, decreasing by about $10, 00 for the subsequent 2 years. In 2020, average lot sales price retuned to the low $70,000 range, as predicted by 1^st quarter sales. The 2021 predicted average lot sale price was about 17% low. The 2022 1st quarter prediction is $109,034.

Here is the prediction for 2022 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will exceed 200.

·         The 2022 average lot sales price will be in the $110,000 range.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2022

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

An 18 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 18 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Over the 18 year period, the highest number of homes sold was in 2021 for St Croix with 219 homes sales and 2018 for St Thomas with 133 home sales; 2021 was nearly the same, with 132 home sales on St Thomas.

·         During 2021, 87 more homes were sold on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Over the 18 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of homes sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

Average Sales Price

·         For the past 18 years, the annual average home sale price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2021, the average St Thomas home sale price was 70% higher, at $861,503, than the 2004 average sales price. The average annual home sale price on St Croix for 2021 was 68% higher, at $618,943, than the 2004 average home sale price.

·         For 2021, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($618,943) was 72% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($861,503).