St. Croix Realtors Joe & Julie San Martin

June 2021

Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past decade, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) accounted for about one third of the St Croix residential inventory from 2014 through 2018. This segment now represents only 16% of inventory. 22% of home sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $200,000 or less; 16% of inventory accounted for 22% of all sales.

·         The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) consistently comprised one third of all homes for sale on St Croix over the previous 10 year period. This segment is now about one fifth of the inventory. 26% of St Croix home sales over the past 12 months were between $200,000 and $400,000; 21% of inventory accounted for 26% of sales.

·         Homes listed for more than $400,000 account for 63% of the inventory, about 7% higher than 10 years ago. During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 52% of all homes sold.

·         Homes listed for more than $1,000,000 increased to 26% of the inventory (51 homes). During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 13% (25 homes) of the total 196 homes sold. A significant change in the St Croix real estate market!

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) was 14% of condominium inventory 10 years ago; in May 2021 it was only 6% of total inventory. In May 2014, this segment accounted for 30% (nearly 1/3) of all condominium inventory.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory until 2019. In May 2021 this segment was 23% (about ¼) of total condominium inventory.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 increased to 71% of inventory, compared to 50% of condo inventory 10 years ago. In May 2013 and 2014, only 30% of the condominium inventory was listed from more than $200,000.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) decreased 4%, compared to 10 years ago, from 23% to 19% of total inventory. In May 2017, this price range accounted for 45% of the land inventory.

·         The middle tier ($50,000 to $300,000) accounted for 65% of land inventory 10 years ago. In May 2021, this segment accounted for 64%, very little change.

·         Lots listed for more than $300,000 increased 4%, compared to 10 years ago, from 13% to 17% of total listing inventory. This is the highest percentage during the decade for this segment of the land inventory.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2021

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

11 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 with 330 homes for sale and declined through 2020. Current inventory of 102 homes for sale is only 31% of the number of homes for sale in 2012.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 with 230 condominiums for sale and declined through 2020. Condominium inventory reduction is even greater; current inventory of 44 condos is only 19% of 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011 with 575 lots for sale and slowly declining through 2020. Current inventory of 342 lots is 59% of the 2011 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

11 Year Review

Residential

May 2021 residential pending sales (94) are the highest of the 11 year period. Previous high was May 2016, with 85 pending residential sales, resulting in total sales for the year of 170 homes. Current pending residential sales (94) are 229% of 11 years ago (41).

Condominium

May 2021 condominium pending sales (42) are also the highest of the 11 year period. Current pending condominium sales (42) are 350% of 2011 pending condo sales (12).

Land

May 2021 pending land sales (88) are also the highest of the 11 year period.  Current pending land sales (88) are 251% of 11 years ago (35).

2021 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2021 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months home sales predict 183 home sales during 2021; pending contracts predict 188 home sales during 2021. Over the 11 year period, only 2018 (207 homes sales) and 2019 (197 homes sales) exceeded this figure.

Condominium

The first four months condo sales predict 177 condominium sales during 2021; pending contracts predict 186 condominium sales during 2021. These figures seem unlikely with 52 sales through April, 42 pending contracts, and an inventory of 44 condominiums, for a total of 138 possible closings if all available condos sold and closed before the end of the year.

Land

The first four months land sales predict 156 land sales during 2021, about the same as 2020. Pending contracts, however, predict 278 land sales during 2021, an 80% increase over last year.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2021

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

An 18 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 18 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         During 2020, fewer homes sold on both St Thomas (101) and St Croix (167) than sold during 2019. St Thomas reduction was 12% (14 fewer homes), the St Croix reduction was 15% (30 fewer homes).

·         During 2020, 66 more homes were sold on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         Over the 18 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of homes sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

·         Over the 18 year period, the highest number of homes sold was in 2018 for both islands – 133 home sales on St Thomas and 207 home sales on St Croix.

Average Sales Price

·         At the beginning of this 18 year period (2003), average home sale prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·         For the past 17 years (since 2004), the annual average home sale price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2020, the average St Thomas home sale price was 66% higher, at $692,745, than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sale price on St Croix for 2020 was 14% higher, at $475,303, than the 2003 average home sale price.

·         For 2020, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($475,303) was 69% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($692,745).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 18 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during six years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

·         During 2020, the total St Croix residential market exceeded the total St Thomas residential market by about $9.4 Million.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin Team Manager

February 2021

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

An 18 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Number of home sales on St Croix is mid-market, for 8 years more homes sold and for 9 years fewer homes sold than sold in 2020 (167).

·         During 2020, 83 condominium sales closed. Only after the recent real estate market collapse (2009 through 2013), did fewer condominiums sell on St Croix.

·         There were 154 lot sales in 2020, exceeded only by the six year period of 2003 through 2008.

Average Sales Price

·         The average 2020 home sales price ($475,303) is the second highest of this 18 year period, exceeded only by 2008 with an average home sales price of $492,394, at the height of the last real estate boom.

·         The 2020 average condominium sales price ($257,882) is the highest of this 18 year period, surpassing even the 2009 average condo sales price of $249,415.

·         The average 2020 lot sales price ($73,602) is lower than 12 of the preceding 17 years. It is the highest average lot sales price since 2017 ($89,914)

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         The 2020 total residential market ($79.4 million) was exceeded by only two years on the previous 17 years - $85.3 million in 2006 and $79.6 million in 2019.

·         The 2020 total condominium market ($21.4 million) was exceeded by seven of the previous 17 years, included 2019 with a total condo market of $27.8 million. This is a 30% decrease, compared to 2019.

·         The 2020 total land market ($11.3 million) is the best performance we have seen since 2009 ($13.3 million). This market segment is moving in the right direction, but has a long recovery ahead.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2021

9 Year St Croix Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix increased by $81,352 over the 9 year period; this is a 21% increase.

Total number of homes sold increased 87% (77 homes) since 2012.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 16% ($109,560 increase).  

The number of homes sold in a year nearly doubled compared to 9 years ago;

12 homes sold in 2012, 22 homes sold in 2020.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 8%

($68,244 decrease).

More than twice a many homes sold in 2020 (25) compared to 9 years ago,

when 10 homes sold.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 71% ($144,611 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year nearly doubled,  

from 15 home sales in 2012 to 23 home sales in 2020.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 74%

($179,391 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 7 homes since 2012, from 22 homes sold in 2012 to 29 home sales in 2020.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 98% ($450,999 increase).

The number of homes sold in a year decreased by one home;

13 homes sales closed in 2012, 12 homes sales closed in 2020.

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 110%

($104,028 increase).

More than 4 times as many homes closed in 2020 (9), compared to 2012

(2 home sales).

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 4%

($9,569 decrease).

Three times as many homes sold in 2020 (16) compared to

 2012 (5 home sales).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 9 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 22%

($45,380 increase).

Twice as many homes sold during 2020 (24 home sales) than during 2012

(10 home sales).

Observations

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island consistently exceed the

island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices are about “average”:

·         Company

·         Queen

More homes sold in all quarters during 2020, when compared to 2012, except:

·         Northside A & B

Compared to 2019, the island wide average home sale price increased 17%.

These quarters experienced increased average home sales prices:

·         East End A

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A  & B

·         King

·         Prince

Compared to 2012, these quarters had higher average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

·         West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters had lower average home sales prices:

·         East End A

·         Prince

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

December 2020

Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2020, there were 23 active and 10 pending home sales in East End B, with 20 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 1.7 year supply of homes for sale

[23 + 10] / 20 = 1.7 Years or 20 months

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, home inventory decreased by one year;

average sales price is 12% ($110,383) lower; from $888,908 to $778,525.

Compared to last year, average time on the market decreased by 13 months;

average sales price increased 4% (from $747,416 to $778,525)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 20 months (from 2.6 years to 0.9 years); average sales price decreased by 7%

(from $370,846 to $344,169)

Compared to last year, average time on the market increased by about 1 month;

average sales price decreased by 4% (from $360,038 to $344,169)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 1.7 years,

from 8.2 years to 6.5 years;

average sales price decreased 4% (from $79,929 to $76,438)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 3.3 years;

 average sales price increased 9% (from $70,163 to $76,438)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, home inventory decreased by nearly 1.5 years,

from 2.8 years to 1.3 years;

 average home sale price increased 115%; from $307,597 to $662,204.

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by about 5 months;

average sales price increased 8% (from $615,527 to $662,204)

Condominium

Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by about 10 months (from 3 years to 2.2 years);

average condominium sales price increased 11% (from $242,556 to $268,083)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by about 11 months;

average sales price increased 63% (from $164,017 to $268,083)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 1.8 years,

from 5.2 years to 3.4 years;

average lot sales price decreased 12% (from $54,421 to $48,600)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased 1.7 years,

from 5.1 years to 3.4 years;

average lot sales price decreased 26% (from $64,600 to $48,104)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 5.8 years;

average home sales price increased 14% (from $275,571 to $315,682)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 2 months;

 average home sales price decreased 1% (from $319,341 to $315,682)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 11 months (from 2.3 years to 1.4 years);

average sales price increased 50% (from $124,992 to $186,848)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 10 months;

average sales price increased 16% (from $161,339 to $186,848)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 1.5 years

(from 3.8 years to 2.3 years);

average sales price decreased 36% (from $66,433 to $44,069)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 1.3 years,

 while average sales price decreased 54% (from $95,858 to $44,069)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by nearly 2 years

(from 2.9 years to 1.0 years);

average sales priced decreased 2% (from $427,342 to $420,970)

Compared to last year, residential inventory is unchanged at 1 year;

average sales price increased 51% (from $279,169 to $420,970)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by

more than 5 years (from 6.8 years to 1.1 years);

average condominium sales price increased 66% (from $102,250 to $169,500)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 11 months;

 average sales price increased 23% (from $138,225 to $169,500)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

more than 14 years (from 16.2 years to 1.9 years);

average lot sales price increased 31% (from $61,000 to $80,100)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 11 months;

 the average lot sales price increased 176% (from $29,056 to $80,100)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 1.8 years;

average home sales price increased 33% (from $592,312 to $789,279)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 4 months;

 average home sales price increased 12% (from $703,601 to $789,279)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by

3.9 years (from 4.7 years to 10 months);

average sales price decreased 15% (from $440,000 to $373,833)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 6 months;

average sales price decreased 17%, from $450,667 to $373,833.

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

nearly 8 years (from 14 years to 6.2 years);

average lot sales price increased 75% (from $59,333 to $103,731)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 2.4 years;

average lot sales price increased 11% (from $93,586 to $103,731)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by

2.5 years (from 4 years to 1.5 years);

average home sales price decreased 15% (from $247,800 to $209,812)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by

1.2 years (from 4 months to 1.5 years);

average residential sales price increased 34% (from $156,494 to $209,812)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

9 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the

12 month period ending November 2011.

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by

2 months (from 2.9 years to 2.7 years);

average lot sales price increased 67% (from $25,000 to $41,667)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by

1.8 years (from 2.6 years to 10 months);

average residential sales price increased 10% (from $239,519 to $264,156)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 2 months;

average residential sales price increased 27% (from $207,815 to $264,156)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by

2.9 years (from 3.7 years to 10 months);

average condominium sales price decreased 2% (from $288,333 to $281,333)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by

5 months (from 0.4 years to 0.8 years);

average condominium sale price increased 9% (from $257,864 to $281,333)

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by

7 years (from 9.3 years to 2.4 years);

average lot sales price increased 48% (from $50,714 to $75,357)

Compared to last year, land inventory is unchanged at 2.4 years;

average lot sales price increased 41% (from $53,318 to $75,357)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 9 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 2 years

(from 2.9 years to 11 months);

average home sale price increased 64%, from $157,512 to $258,912)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by

4 months, from 14 months to 10 months;

average home sale price decreased 23% (from $338,000 to $258,912)

Condominium

            Compared to 9 years ago, condominium inventory increased by

2.7 years (from 2.3 years to 5 years);

average condominium sale price increased 173% (from $146,250 to $399,900)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by nearly 5 years;

average condominium sales price increased 108%, from $191,918 to $399,900.

Vacant Land

Compared to 9 years ago, land inventory decreased by 8.5 years,

from 10.9 years to 2.4 years;

average lot sales price increased 105% (from $32,222 to $66,147)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 1 month;

average lot sales price increased 17% (from $56,625 to $66,147)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2020

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

1.7 sellers for every buyer

2017

130 home sales closed January through October; there were 200 homes for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2018

166 home sales closed January through October; there were 143 homes for sale

0.86 sellers for every buyer

2019

162 home sales closed January through October; there were 218 homes for sale

                                                  1.3 sellers for every buyer

2020

136 home sales closed January through October; there were 129 homes for sale

                                                 0.95 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

2016

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

0.75 sellers for every buyer

2017

92 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 81 condos for sale

0.88 sellers for every buyer

2018

94 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 47 condos for sale

0.5 sellers for every buyer

2019

116 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 73 condos for sale

0.6 sellers for every buyer

2020

71 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 78 condos for sale

1.1 sellers for every buyer

Vacant Land

37 land sales closed January through October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January through October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

2016

64 land sales closed January through October; there were 551 lots for sale

8.6 sellers for every buyer

2017

75 land sales closed January through October; there were 486 lots for sale

6.5 sellers for every buyer

2018

90 land sales closed January through October; there were 445 lots for sale

4.9 sellers for every buyer

2019

118 land sales closed January through October; there were 511 lots for sale

4.3 sellers for every buyer

2020

112 land sales closed January through October; there were 391 lots for sale

3.5 sellers for every buyer

First 10 months of 2014 through 2020

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

October 2020

St Croix Real Estate Inventory Levels

TOTAL INVENTORY

Residential

48% fewer homes (128) than eleven years ago.

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 with 336 homes on the market

Lowest inventory during this period was 9/15/18 with only

136 homes for sale.

Condominium

GIGANTIC decrease over the twelve year period!

Eleven years ago, there were three times as many condominiums on the market (236) as were for sale on 9/15/20 (77).

Lowest inventory during this period was 9/15/18, with only

46 condominiums for sale.

Vacant Land

37% fewer lots (212) than eleven years ago.

9/15/2020 is the lowest inventory of the twelve year period with only

363 lots for sale.

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Under $200,000 listings (16%) are 3% higher than eleven years ago as percentage of total inventory. Compared to last year, this segment decreased by 2%.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings (26%) have remained relatively constant over the 12 year period, varying from 24% of inventory (9/15/218) to 34% of inventory (9/15/14).

$400,000 to $600 listings (11%) are unchanged from eleven years ago. Highest was 20% (9/15/10) and lowest was 10% (9/15/14).

$600,000 to $800,000 listings are 4% lower than eleven years ago. On 9/15/2009, this price range accounted for 15% of residential inventory.

$800,000 to $1,000,000 listings (9%) remained relatively constant over the twelve year period, varying form a high of 9% (2010 and 2020) to a low of 3% (2015) of total inventory.

Listings over $1,000,000 (22%) are at their highest level of the 12 year period. Lowest level was 9/15/13, at just 11% of total inventory.

Condominium

Under $100,000 listings are currently only 4% of total condo listings, down from a high of 29% (9/15/13).

$100,000 to $200,000 listings (22%) decreased by 4% of total inventory since last year. On 9/15/09, this price range represented 47% of the total condominium inventory.

$200,000 to $300,000 listings are at 32% of total inventory, down 5% from last year.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings, at 33% of total inventory, are the highest level of the 12 year period. Lowest level was just 7% on 9/15/13.

Listings over $500,000 represent 9% of the total condominium market, about the same as 11 years ago.

Vacant Land

Under $50,000 listings are 6% higher than eleven years ago, at 27%. The highest percentage of inventory (44%) was 9/15/17.

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have remained relatively constant, now representing 30% of inventory, as they did eleven years ago. Highest level was 34% in 2011, lowest was 25% (2015, 2017, and 2018).

$100,000 to $300,000 listings are 6% lower than eleven years ago, currently at 27%. Lowest percentage was 9/15/17, at 22% of total land inventory.

Listings over $300,000 are nearly the same as eleven years ago at 17% of total land market. Lowest levels were 2013, 2016, and 2017 when this segment of the market decreased to 9% of total land listings.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2020

A Tale of Two Islands

St Croix and St Thomas Real Estate Sales

Eight Year Comparison Year to Date

Number of Sales

Residential

Residential sales on St Thomas increased 20% (9 homes) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the number of homes sold increased 24%

(21 homes) over the eight year period.

Condominium

Condominium sales increased 23% (12 condos) on St Thomas, no increase on St Croix over the eight year period.

Vacant Land

Vacant land sales on St Thomas increased 86% (18 lots) over the eight year period. On St Croix, land sales increased 95% (39 lots) over the eight year period.  

Residential

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas residential sales price increased 7% ($44,496) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the average home sales price increased 52% ($149,401) over the eight year period.

St Thomas Home Sales Prices

 St Croix Home Sales Prices

Median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less.

For St Thomas, the median home sales price is 10% higher ($53,060) than eight years ago. On St Croix, the median home sales price increased 20% ($55,000) over the eight year period.

 Median Home Sales Price

Condominium

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas condominium sales price increased 18% ($39,855) over the eight year period. On St Croix, average sales price increased 44% ($74,332).

St Thomas Condominium Sales Prices

St Croix Condominium Sales Prices

Over the eight year period, the median condominium sales price increased 28% ($48,750) on St Thomas and 56% ($80,500) on St Croix.

The St Croix median condominium sales price currently exceeds

St Thomas by 1% ($2,500)

Median Condominium Sales Price

Vacant Land

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas land sales price decreased 1% ($947) over the eight year period. On St Croix, average land sales price increased 89% ($38,524) over the eight year period.

St Thomas Land Sales Prices

St Croix Land Sales Prices

Median Land Sales Price

On St Thomas, the median lot sales price decreased 17% ($14,500) compared to eight years ago. On St Croix, the median lot sales price increased 6% ($2,000) compared to eight years ago.

Total Market (Millions)

The St Thomas total residential market increased 27% ($8.4 million) over the past eight years. On St Croix, total residential market increased 91% ($21.4 million) and exceeds St Thomas by

$6 million for this period.

 Residential

 The St Thomas total condominium market increased 36% ($5.3 million) over the eight year period. On St Croix, the total condominium market increased 46% ($4.2 million) over the eight year period.

Condominium

The St Thomas total land market increased 83% ($1.9 million) over the eight year period. On St Croix, total land market increased 267%

($4.8 million) and currently exceeds St Thomas total market by

$2.4 million.

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

August 2020

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory has decreased for both homes and condominiums, 

Inventory decreased by about a 3 years for both categories.

There is now a 1.8 year supply of homes and a 1.4 year supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Compared to eight years ago, average home sales price increased by 32%, from $575,667 in 2012 to $760,459 for 2020.

Average condominium sales price decreased 3%, from $382,500 in 2012 to $371,475 for 2020.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory decreased by about 3 years for homes, to a 1.8 year supply.

Inventory is essentially unchanged for condominiums, at a 4.5 year supply.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price ($626,058) is 30% higher than eight years ago ($481,712)

Condominium average sale price ($192,875) is 6% lower than eight years ago ($204,667)

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by about 2.5 years, to a 1.3 year supply of homes.

Condominium inventory sell off was dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units eight years ago to a current 1.1 year supply of condominiums for sale.

Average Sales Price

Homes and condominiums both experienced average sales price increases, compared to eight years ago.

Average home sale price increased 52% ($99,958), from $191,269 in 2012 to $291,227 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condo sale price increased 70% ($74,877), from $106,250 eight years ago to $181,127 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Home inventory decreased by nearly 2 years, to a 1.3 year supply, over the eight year period.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 7 years over this period, to a 10 month supply for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price increased 16% ($47,336) over the eight year period, from $291,289 in 2012 to $338,625 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condo sale price increased 87% ($65,425) over the eight year period, from

$75,125 in 2012 to $140,850 from the 12 months ending July 2020.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by 3 years, to a 1.6 year supply of homes.

The condominium supply decreased by more than 6 years, to a 10 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price ($673,325) increased by $214,215 (47%), compared to eight years ago ($459,110).

Average condominium sale price increased by $28,000 (8%) over the eight year period, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $373,000 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Residential inventory decreased by 18 months, compared to eight years ago, to 2.3 years of inventory for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased $18,833 (9%) over the eight year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $188,567 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by 5 years, to a 6 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 10 years, to a 4 month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a sales price increase of $16,770 (8%) when compared to eight years ago, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $225,200 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Condominiums experienced a $125,227 (30%) decrease in average sale price over the eight year period, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $289,773 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Eight years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Over the eight year period, residential inventory decreased by over 2 years, to a 2.3 year supply of homes for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Condominium inventory decreased by 7 years; there were no West End condominiums on the market at the end of July 2020.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased $168,677 (103%) over the eight year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $332,977 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Average condominium sale price increased $183,700 (294%) over the eight year period, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $246,200 for the 12 months ending July 2020.

Conclusion

Over the nine year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·         East End B

·         Northside A & B

·         East End A

Over the nine year period, the average St Croix condominium sales price increased by about $45,960.

These quarters did not experienced an increase in average condo sales price:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Prince

Residential and condominium inventories decreased to between 1 and 2 years island wide over the past nine years, with these exceptions:

·         East End A now has  4.5 years of condominium inventory

·         Prince Quarter has only a 6 month supply of residential inventory

·         West End Quarter had no actively listed condominiums as of July 2020

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2020

15 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 15 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – A significant drop (32%) in number of homes sold, but better than 9 of the previous 14 years, in terms of number of homes sold.

·         Condominiums – Similar to the home market, a 36% drop in the number of condominiums sold, compared to the previous 12 month period. Exceeds 7 of the previous 14 years in number of condos sold.

·         Land – Performed better than homes and condos with only a 23% drop in the number of lots sold, compared to the previous 12 month period. Similar to home sales; number of lots sold exceeds 9 of the previous 14 years.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Average home sales price increased 13% over the previous 12 month period, from $359,384 to $406,753. This exceeds the average homes sale price of 11 of the previous 14 years.

·         Condominiums – Average condominium sales price increased 20% compared to the previous 12 month period, from $205,401 to $247,160. This is the highest average condominium sales price of the entire 15 year period!

·         Land – Average lot sales price also increase 13% over the previous 12 month period, from $64,651 to $73,290. This average lot sales price exceeded only 6 of the previous 14 years.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – The total residential market ($63.9 million) was a 23% decrease from the previous 12 month period with $83 million in residential sales. Compared to the 15 year period, total resident al sales exceed all but 4 of the previous periods.

·         Condominiums – The total condominium market ($22.0 million) was also a 23% decrease from the previous 12 month period of $28.5 million. As with the residential market, only 4 of the previous 14 years exceeded this period’s total sales.

·         Land – The total land market ($8.5 million) was a 13% decrease from the previous 12 month period with $9.8 million in land sales. This level of sales was exceed by 6 of the previous 14 years total land market.

Conclusion

Compared to 14 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales decreased 47% ($84.9 Million Dollars)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales decreased $26.9 million (22%) for the period of July 2019 through June 2020

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2020

Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past decade, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) accounted for about one third of the St Croix residential inventory from 2014 through 2018. For the past two years, this segment reduced to slightly under 1/5 of the inventory. 30% of home sales on St Croix over the past 12 months were for $200,000 or less; 19% of inventory accounted for 30% of sales.

·         The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) consistently comprised one third of all homes for sale on St Croix over the previous 10 year period. This segment is now about one fifth of the inventory. 30% of St Croix home sales over the past 12 months were between $200,000 and $400,000; 20% of inventory accounted for 30% of sales.

·         Homes listed for more than $400,000 account for 60% of the inventory, as they did 10 years ago. During the past 12 months, this price range accounted for 39% of all homes sold.

·         Homes listed for more than $1,000,000 increased to 23% of the inventory for the past 2 years; during this same period home sales of $1,000,000 or more accounted for 4% (17 sales) of the total 399 homes sold.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) is now just 4% of condominium inventory; this segment averaged 19% of inventory over the past 10 years. Big change!

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory over the previous 10 year period. It now represents only 16% of total condominium inventory

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 are now 80% of the inventory, a 20% increase over the previous 10 year period. 53% of condominiums sales during the past 12 months exceeded $200,000.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) increased 9%, compared to 11 years ago, to 29%. In May 2017, this price range accounted for 45% of the inventory.

·         The middle tier ($50,000 to $300,000) decreased 10% over the 10 year period, from 65% in 2010 to the current 55%.

·         Lots listed for more than $300,000 are at their highest level in 11 years, at 15% of inventory. This segment of the inventory averaged 11% over the previous 10 year period.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2020

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 with 330 homes for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 163 homes for sale is 51% lower (167 homes)

than May 2012 residential inventory.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 with 230 condominiums for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 77 condos is 1/3 of the May 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011 with 575 lots for sale and steadily declining until 2014, then began to again increase. Current inventory of 433 lots is 75% of the 2011 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2016, at 85 pending residential sales, and have been robust since. Current pending residential sales (68) are 166%

of 10 years ago (41).

Condominium

Condominium pending sales peaked in May 2019 with 38 pending condo sales. The current level of 19 pending sales is exceeded by the previous 7 years, only 2011 and 2012 saw a lower level of pending sales.

Land

Pending land sales remained relatively constant over the first 8 years. The 2020 figure of 49 pending land sales is the highest for the entire 10 year period.

2020 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2020 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict only 123 home sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2013.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be 87 condominium sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2012

Land

Using the first 4 months sales as a predictor, only 84 land sales are forecast for 2020. Appears to be a return to the 2011 through 2016 lot sales levels, disappointing.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April

 1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2020 is the 12^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 and the 2020 pandemic are not helpful.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

12 year period:

·       Residential inventory peaked in 2012, with 340 homes for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 121 homes for sale in 2019. Inventory levels have now returned to the 2018 level of 172 homes for sale.

·      Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 46 condos on the market in 2019. The current level of 70 condominiums for sale has not quite returned to the 2018 level.

·      Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. Since then, land inventory has been between 566 lots for sale and 443 lots for sale (2020).

Residential Sales & 2020 Predictions

Until 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. In 2018, 1^st quarter sales underestimated actual number of homes sales by 40%. In 2019, 1^st quarter sales slightly overestimated the total annual sales number. 2020 1^st quarter sales predict only 104 home sales for the year, a 47% decrease from 2019.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2020 1^st quarter average sales price predicts an annual average sales price of nearly $200,000 more than the 2018 average home sales price, but also a significant (47%) decrease in the total number of homes sold.  

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of homes sold will be as predicted, around 104 homes.

·       Average sales price will most likely be in the low $400,000 range.

Condominium Sales & 2020 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Beginning in 2014, there have been more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. The prediction for 2020 (76 condominium sales) is a decrease to about 60% of the 2019 number of sales (126).

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 70 condo range, approximately the number of condos for sale.

·       Average sales price will most likely be in the $250,000 range.

Land Sales & 2020 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold have been trending in the right direction since 2014. However, the prediction for 2020 is only 80 annual lot sales, a 45% decrease from 2019.    

From 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price was in the $70,000 range. Since 2018, average sales price dropped about $5,000, to the mid-$60,000 range.

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of lots sold will be in the 100 range, about 15% lower than 2019.

·       The 2020 average lot sales price will be in the $65,000 range, similar to the previous 2 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2020

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 17 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·        Over the 17 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·        During 2019, more homes sold on both St Thomas (115) and St Croix (197) than had sold during any of the previous 16 years, with the exception of 2018.

·        Over the 17 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of home sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

·        During 2019, 82 more homes were sold on St Croix, when compared to St Thomas.

·        Compared to 2018, 18 fewer homes were sold on St Thomas during 2019 and 10 fewer homes were sold on St Croix during 2019.