St. Croix Realtors Joe & Julie San Martin

May 2020

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 with 330 homes for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 163 homes for sale is 51% lower (167 homes)

than May 2012 residential inventory.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012 with 230 condominiums for sale and steadily declined through 2019. Current inventory of 77 condos is 1/3 of the May 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011 with 575 lots for sale and steadily declining until 2014, then began to again increase. Current inventory of 433 lots is 75% of the 2011 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

10 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2016, at 85 pending residential sales, and have been robust since. Current pending residential sales (68) are 166%

of 10 years ago (41).

Condominium

Condominium pending sales peaked in May 2019 with 38 pending condo sales. The current level of 19 pending sales is exceeded by the previous 7 years, only 2011 and 2012 saw a lower level of pending sales.

Land

Pending land sales remained relatively constant over the first 8 years. The 2020 figure of 49 pending land sales is the highest for the entire 10 year period.

2020 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2020 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict only 123 home sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2013.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be 87 condominium sales during 2020, the lowest annual number since 2012

Land

Using the first 4 months sales as a predictor, only 84 land sales are forecast for 2020. Appears to be a return to the 2011 through 2016 lot sales levels, disappointing.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April

 1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2020 is the 12^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 and the 2020 pandemic are not helpful.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

12 year period:

·       Residential inventory peaked in 2012, with 340 homes for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 121 homes for sale in 2019. Inventory levels have now returned to the 2018 level of 172 homes for sale.

·      Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums for sale, then steadily declined each year to the low point of only 46 condos on the market in 2019. The current level of 70 condominiums for sale has not quite returned to the 2018 level.

·      Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. Since then, land inventory has been between 566 lots for sale and 443 lots for sale (2020).

Residential Sales & 2020 Predictions

Until 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. In 2018, 1^st quarter sales underestimated actual number of homes sales by 40%. In 2019, 1^st quarter sales slightly overestimated the total annual sales number. 2020 1^st quarter sales predict only 104 home sales for the year, a 47% decrease from 2019.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2020 1^st quarter average sales price predicts an annual average sales price of nearly $200,000 more than the 2018 average home sales price, but also a significant (47%) decrease in the total number of homes sold.  

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of homes sold will be as predicted, around 104 homes.

·       Average sales price will most likely be in the low $400,000 range.

Condominium Sales & 2020 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Beginning in 2014, there have been more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. The prediction for 2020 (76 condominium sales) is a decrease to about 60% of the 2019 number of sales (126).

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 70 condo range, approximately the number of condos for sale.

·       Average sales price will most likely be in the $250,000 range.

Land Sales & 2020 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold have been trending in the right direction since 2014. However, the prediction for 2020 is only 80 annual lot sales, a 45% decrease from 2019.    

From 2014 through 2017, the average lot sales price was in the $70,000 range. Since 2018, average sales price dropped about $5,000, to the mid-$60,000 range.

Here is the prediction for 2020 overall:

·       Total number of lots sold will be in the 100 range, about 15% lower than 2019.

·       The 2020 average lot sales price will be in the $65,000 range, similar to the previous 2 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2020

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 17 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·        Over the 17 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·        During 2019, more homes sold on both St Thomas (115) and St Croix (197) than had sold during any of the previous 16 years, with the exception of 2018.

·        Over the 17 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of home sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

·        During 2019, 82 more homes were sold on St Croix, when compared to St Thomas.

·        Compared to 2018, 18 fewer homes were sold on St Thomas during 2019 and 10 fewer homes were sold on St Croix during 2019.

Average Sales Price

·        At the beginning of this 17 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·        For the past 16 years (since 2004), the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·        For 2019, the average St Thomas homes price was 48% higher, at $617,848, than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2019 was 3% lower, at $403,914, than the 2003 average sales price.

·        For 2019, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($403,914) was 65% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($617,848).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·        This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·        During this 17 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during six years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

·        During 2019, the total St Croix residential market exceeded the total St Thomas residential market by about $8.6 Million.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin Team Manager

February 2020

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 17 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Number of home sales on St Croix remains at a historic high level (197), only in 2018 were more homes sold (206). The next highest number of homes sold was 188 during 2006, the height of the real estate boom.

·         During 2019, 126 condominiums sold on St Croix, very similar numbers to the previous 5 years. Nearly twice as many condos sold during 2005 (208 condos). The fewest condos sold in 2012, when only 34 condominiums sold.

·         There were 145 lots sales in 2019, the highest number of lots sold on St Croix since 2009.

Average Sales Price

·         The average 2019 home sales price ($403,914) was $9,525 lower than the 2003 average home sales price of $413,439. Since 2012, the average home sale price has varied between the low $300,000 range to $400,000.

·         The 2019 average condominium sales price ($220,498) is $75,675 higher than the average condo price in 2003 ($144,823). Since 2015, the average condominium sales price has remained in the $180,000 to $220,000 range.  

·         The average 2019 lot sales price ($64,821) is $26,494 lower than the average lot sale price for 2003 ($91,315). Over the 17 year period, only 2013 saw a lower average lot sales price ($50,290).

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         The 2019 total residential market ($79.6 million) was just $6 million lower than the height of the St Croix real estate market in 2006 ($85.3 million)! While the average sales price has not increased, the number of homes sold on St Croix continues on its upward trend.

·         The 2019 total condominium market ($27.8 million) was exceeded only by the total market in 2005 ($34.7 million) and 2006 ($30.7 million). Since 2014, total condos sold has been in the 108 to 126 condo range. Average sales price increased by $25,000 since last year and is exceeded only by 2007 ($252,000) and 2009 ($249,000).

·         The 2019 total land market ($9.4 million) is the best performance we have seen since 2009 ($13.3 million). More lots were sold in 2019 (145) than in any year since 2008 (224 lot sales). This market segment is moving in the right direction, but has a long recovery ahead.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2020

December 2019

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2019

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014 through 2019

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer

2016

143 home sales closed January through October; there were 240 homes for sale

1.7 sellers for every buyer

2017

130 home sales closed January through October; there were 200 homes for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2018

166 home sales closed January through October; there were 143 homes for sale

0.86 sellers for every buyer

2019

162 home sales closed January through October; there were 218 homes for sale

1.3 sellers for every buyer

Condominium

2014

101 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 154 condos for sale

1.5 sellers for every buyer

2015

88 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 127 condos for sale

1.4 sellers for every buyer

2016

106 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 79 condos for sale

0.75 sellers for every buyer

2017

92 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 81 condos for sale

0.88 sellers for every buyer

2018

94 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 47 condos for sale

0.5 sellers for every buyer

2019

116 condominium sales closed January - October; there were 73 condos for sale

0.6 sellers for every buyer

Vacant Land

37 land sales closed January through October; there were 522 lots for sale

14.1 sellers for every buyer

2015

62 land sales closed January through October; there were 490 lots for sale

7.9 sellers for every buyer

2016

64 land sales closed January through October; there were 551 lots for sale

8.6 sellers for every buyer

2017

75 land sales closed January through October; there were 486 lots for sale

6.5 sellers for every buyer

2018

90 land sales closed January through October; there were 445 lots for sale

4.9 sellers for every buyer

2019

118 land sales closed January through October; there were 511 lots for sale

4.3 sellers for every buyer

SALES BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Condominium

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

October 2019

Eleven Year Comparison

St Croix Real Estate Inventory Levels

TOTAL INVENTORY

Residential

44% lower (117 homes) than eleven years ago.

Highest inventory during this period was 9/15/12 with 336 homes on the market

Lowest inventory during this period was last year (9/15/18) with only

136 homes for sale.

Condominium

GIGANTIC decrease over the eleven year period!

Eleven years ago, there were four times as many condominiums on the market (236) as were for sale on 9/15/18 (53).

Vacant Land

18% lower (104 lots) than eleven years ago.

Land inventory slowly declined over the ten year period and is now beginning to increase.

INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE

Residential

Under $200,000 listings (18%) increased 5% as percentage of total inventory, compared to eleven years ago. Compared to last year, this segment decreased by 13%; a significant adjustment.

$200,000 to $400,000 listings (27%) have remained relatively constant over the 11 year period, varying from 24% of inventory (9/15/218) to 34% of inventory (9/15/14).

$400,000 to $600 listings (15%) have remained constant at about 15% of total inventory over the eleven year period. Highest was 20% (9/15/10) and lowest was 10% (9/15/14).

$600,000 to $800,000 listings more than doubled since last year, from 6% of total inventory (9/15/218) to 13% of total inventory for the current period.

$800,000 to $1,000,000 listings (6%) remain relatively constant over the ten year period, varying form a high of 9% (2010) to a low of 3% (2012) of total inventory.

Listings over $1,000,000 (21%) are at their highest level of the 11 year period. Lowest level was 9/15/13 at just 11% of total inventory.

Condominium

Under $100,000 listings are currently only 4% of total condo listings, down from a high of 29% (9/15/13).

$100,000 to $200,000 listings (26%) decreased by 13% of total inventory since last year. On 9/15/16, this price range represented 46% of the total condominium inventory.

$200,000 to $300,000 listings are at 37% of total inventory, the highest percentage of the 11 year period.

$300,000 to $500,000 listings, at 23% of inventory, are approaching the highest level (24%) of 9/15/10. Lowest level was just 7% on 9/15/13.

Listings over $500,000 represent about 10% of the total condominium market, the highest level of the 11 year period. Lowest level was 9/15/16 at just 3% of total inventory.

Vacant Land

Under $50,000 listings are 10% higher than 11 years ago, at 31%. The highest percentage of inventory (44%) was in 9/15/17.

$50,000 to $100,000 listings have remained relatively constant, now representing 28% of inventory. Highest level was 34% in 2011, lowest was 25% (2015, 2017, and 2018).

$100,000 to $300,000 listings are 5% lower than 11 years ago, currently at 28%. Lowest percentage was 9/15/17, at 22% of total land inventory.

Listings over $300,000 are 3% lower than 11 years ago at 13% of total land market. Lowest levels were 2013, 2016, and 2017; this segment of the market decreased to 9% of total land listings.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

September 2019

A Tale of Two Islands

St Croix and St Thomas Real Estate Sales

Seven Year Comparison Year to Date

Number of Sales

Residential

Residential sales on St Thomas increased 85% (39 homes) over the seven year period. On St Croix, the number of homes sold increased 63% (52 homes) over the seven year period.

Condominium

Condominium sales increased 81% on both islands over the seven year period.

Vacant Land

Vacant land sales on St Thomas increased 76% (15 lots) over the seven year period. On St Croix, land sales increased 134% (55 lots) over the seven year period.

Residential

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas residential sales price is nearly identical to the average home sale price of seven years ago. On St Croix, the average home sales price increased 40% ($115,341) over the seven year period

St Thomas Home Sales Prices

St Croix Home Sales Prices

Median sales price is the midpoint - half of all homes sold for more than this price, half sold for less.

For St Thomas, the median home sales price is $110,000 lower than seven years ago. On St Croix, the median home sales price increased $10,500 over the seven year period; it is essentially unchanged and $124,500 lower than St Thomas.

Median Home Sales Price

Condominium

Average Sales Price

The average condominium sales price is little changed from last year on both islands. Over the 7 year period, average condo sales price increased by 12% on St Thomas and 22% on St Croix.

St Thomas Condominium Sales Prices lowest vs highest

St Croix Condominium Sales Prices lowest vs highest

Over the seven year period, the median condominium sales price increased $51,250 on St Thomas and $40,500 on St Croix.

Median Condominium Sales Price

Vacant Land

Average Sales Price

The average St Thomas land sales price increased by nearly 60% over the seven year period.

On St Croix, average land sale price increased by about 23% over the 7 year period

St Thomas Land Sales Prices

St Croix Land Sales Prices

Median Land Sales Price

On both islands, the median lot sales price is nearly the same as 7 years ago.

Total Market (Millions)

The 2019 St Thomas and St Croix total residential markets were nearly the same, as they have been for the past 5 years.

Residential

The St Thomas total condominium market recovered to the 2016 / 2017 levels. On St Croix, 2019 was by far the highest level of condominium sales in 7 years.

Condominium

The St Thomas and St Croix total land market were nearly identical for this period; the St Thomas total land market more than doubled since last year, the St Croix total land market was the highest in 7 years.

Vacant Land

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

August 2019

Sales Price and Marketing Time on St Croix

“Annual Supply” represents the number of years it will take at the current annual rate of sales to sell all the properties for sale

in a specific area.

East End B

Far East End

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.7 year supply of homes and a 4.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory has decreased for both homes and condominiums, 

There is now a 2.8 year supply of homes and an 8 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Compared to seven years ago, average home sales price increased by 15%, from $575,667 in 2012 to $662,850 for 2019, while average condominium sales price decreased 24%, from $382,500 in 2012 to $290,625 for 2019.

East End A

Christiansted east to Coakley Bay

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.2 year supply of homes and a 4.8 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Inventory has decreased for both homes and condominiums.  

There is now an 11 month supply of homes and a 5 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price ($517,241) is 7% higher than seven years ago ($481,712)

Condominium average sale price ($197,346) is 3% lower than seven years ago ($204,667)

Company

Christiansted west to east side of Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.7 year supply of homes and a 5.9 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by nearly 3 years, to a 10 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory sell off was dramatic, from a 5.9 year supply of units seven years ago to a current 6 month supply of condominiums for sale.

Average Sales Price

Homes and condominiums both experienced average sales price increases, compared to seven years ago.

Average home sale price increased the most ($154,275), from $191,269 in 2012 to $345,544 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Average condo sale price increased $48,885, from $106,250 seven years ago to $155,136 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Queen

Constitution Hill west to La Reine, includes southwest Judiths Fancy

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.1 year supply of homes and an 8.3 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Home inventory has decreased by more than 2 years, to a 1 year supply, over the seven year period.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 7 years over this period, to an 11 month supply for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Average Sales Price

Average residential sale price decreased slightly ($6,496) over the seven year period, from $291,289 in 2012 to $284,793 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Average condo sale price increased by $61,657 over the seven year period, from

$75,125 in 2012 to $136,782 from the 12 months ending July 2019.

Northside A & B

North shore from north Judiths Fancy west to Hamms Bluff

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 6.5 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 3 years, to a 1 year supply of homes.

The condominium supply decreased by more than 6 years, to a 5 month supply of condominiums in this quarter.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price ($681,863) increased by $222,753, compared to seven years ago ($459,110

Average condominium sale price increased by about $39,875 over the seven year period, from $345,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $384,875 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

King

South shore from La Reine west to UVI

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 3.8 year supply of homes;

there are no condominiums in King Quarter.

Residential inventory decreased by more than 3 years, compared to seven years ago, to 6 months of inventory for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price decreased $45,882 over the seven year period, from $207,400 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $161,118 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Prince

South shore from UVI west to Williams Delight

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 5.8 year supply of homes and an 11.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Residential inventory decreased by 5 years, to a 10 month supply of homes.

Condominium inventory decreased by more than 11 years, to an 8 month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Homes saw a sales price increase of $22,685 when compared to seven years ago, from $208,430 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $231,115 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Condominiums experienced a $193,733 decrease in average sale price over the seven year period, from $415,000 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $231,115 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

West End

South from Mahogany Road, East to Williams Delight

Inventory

Seven years ago (July 2012), there was a 4.6 year supply of homes and a 7.0 year supply of condominiums on the market.

Over the seven year period, residential inventory decreased by nearly 3 years, to a 10 month supply of homes for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Condominium inventory decreased by nearly 7 years, to a 2 month supply of condominiums.

Average Sales Price

Average home sale price increased $77,161 over the seven year period, from $164,300 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $241,461 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Average condominium sale price increased $134,806 (!) over the seven year period, from $62,500 for the 12 months ending July 2012 to $197,306 for the 12 months ending July 2019.

Conclusion

Over the eight year period, average home sale prices were highest, usually more than double those of other quarters, in these quarters:

·       Northside A & B

·       East End B

·       East End A

Over the eight year period, the average condominium sale price increased by about $33,000.

These quarters did not experienced an increase in average condo sales price:

·       East End B

·       East End A

·       Prince

Residential and condominium inventories decreased to a year or less island wide over the past eight years, with the exception of East End B, which has a residential inventory of nearly 3 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

July 2019

14 year look at the St Croix Real Estate Market for the 12 month period ending 30 June

The last real estate boom on St Croix was 14 years ago –

The 2005 / 2006 period

Total number of properties sold

·         Residential – More homes sold during this period than any other period during the 14 year look back! At 231 home sales, the past 12 months exceed the height of the market (2005/2006) by 30 homes!

·         Condominiums – Excellent sales activity (139 condos sold), exceeded only by 2016/2017 (142 condo sales) and 2005/2006 (220 condo sales).  

·         Land – Land sales are increasing. At 152 land sales, this is the highest number of lots sold since 2008/2009.

Average sales price

·         Residential – Average home sale price has decreased. At $359,384 for the current period, only the three year period of 2012/2015 produced lower average home sale prices. The lowest was 2013/2014 with a $336,195 average home sale price.

·         Condominiums – Average condominium sales price for this 12 month period ($205,401) exceeded 8 of the previous 14 years. Highest average condominium sales price was $238,359 for the period 2007/2008.

·         Land – Average lot sales price ($64,651) was lower than any of the previous 14 years except for the 2017/2018 period with a $63,069 average sales price.

Total Market

Number of properties sold x Average sales price

·         Residential – The total residential market ($83 million) was the highest since the boom of 2005/2006 ($93.6 million)!

·         Condominiums – The total condominium market ($28.5 million) was the highest since the boom of 2005/2006 ($40.1 million)!

·         Land – This total land market ($9.8 million) was the highest since the 2008/2009 period ($18.0 million) but still way below the height of this market in 2005/2006 ($45.6 million).

Conclusion

Compared to 14 years ago, total St Croix real estate sales have decreased by about 1/3 ($58 Million Dollars)

Compared to the previous 12 month period, total

St Croix real estate sales increased $47 million (39%) for the period of July 2018 through June 2019

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

June 2019

 Changes in the St Croix Real Estate Market

Inventory levels by price range reflect the seller’s expectations.

The attached graphs compare changes in asking prices over the past decade, using 15 May inventory levels.

Residential

·         The lowest price range (under $200,000) has accounted for about one third of the St Croix residential inventory for the past 5 years. Last year saw a big decrease, from 33% of the inventory to just 17% of total, and much smaller, inventory. Homes sold for $200,000 or less accounted for 37% of St Croix residential sales over the past 12 months.

·         The second tier ($200,000 to $400,000) has consistently comprised nearly one third of all homes for sale on St Croix over the previous 9 year period. This segment is now about one quarter of the inventory. 31% of St Croix home sales over the past 12 months were between $200,000 and $400,000.

·         Homes listed for more than $400,000 account for 56% of the inventory, as they did 10 years ago. Homes listed for more than $1,000,000 increased to 23% of the inventory over the past 12 months; during this same period homes sales of $1,000,000 or more accounted for 3% (6 sales) of the total 235 homes sold.

Condominium

·         The lowest price range (under $100,000) is now 11% and approaching the 2010 level of 9% of inventory, after more than tripling in 2014, when this price range represented 30% of condominium inventory.

·         The second tier ($100,000 to $200,000) has consistently included between one-third and one-half the inventory over the 10 year period.

·         Condominiums listed for more than $200,000 are nearly 60% of the inventory, almost a 20% increase over the 10 year period.

Land

·         The lowest price range (under $50,000) nearly doubled over the 10 year period, from 20% of total inventory in 2010 to 35% of all lots for sale in 2019.

·         The middle tier ($50,000 to $300,000) decreased by 15% over the 10 year period, as lot prices were reduced to reflect market conditions.

·         Lots listed for more than $300,000 have remained constant at about 12% of the inventory over the 10 year period.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

May 2019

Inventory Levels and Sales Projections

May Inventory Levels

9 Year Review

Residential

Residential inventory peaked in 2012 at 330 homes for sale and has steadily declined since then. Current inventory of 144 homes for sale is 56% lower (186 homes) than May 2012 residential inventory.

Condominium

Condominium inventory also peaked in 2012, at 230 condominiums for sale, and has steadily declined since then. Current inventory of 44 condos is less than one fifth of the May 2012 condominium inventory.

Land

Land inventory peaked in 2011 at 575 lots, steadily declining until 2014, then began to again increase. Current inventory of 492 lots is 86% of the 2011 inventory.

May Pending Sale Levels

9 Year Review

Residential

Residential pending sales peaked in May 2016, at 85 pending residential sales, and have been robust since, at nearly twice the level of earlier in the decade.

Condominium

The condominium inventory has continuously declined since May 2012. Meanwhile the number of pending condo sales has steadily increased and is currently at 86% of the inventory!  
 

Land

Pending land sales remained relatively constant over the first 8 years. The 2019 figure of 48 pending land sales is the highest for the 9 year period.

2019 Sales Predictions

Using the assumption that the first 4 months of 2019 is a valid predictor for the entire year.

Residential

The first four months predict there will be exactly the same number of homes sold during 2019 (207) as were sold during 2018. This number represents a 25% increase in the number of home sales, compared to the 2014 through 2017 periods.

Condominium

The first four months predict there will be 141 condominium sales during 2019. With a current inventory of only 35 condominiums for sale, this is unlikely.

Land

Using the first 4 months sales as a predictor, 117 land sales are forecast for 2019. During 2018, 120 land sales closed, the highest number of land sales since 2009. The land market is definitely improving!

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

April 2019

1^st Quarter Sales as Predictor for the full year

2019 is the 11^th year of the St Croix real estate market “recovery” from the real estate boom years of 2006 through 2008. The two Category 5 hurricanes in September 2017 were not helpful.

The question is – what do the 1^st quarter statistics predict about market prospects for the rest of the year?

First, a look at inventory trends over the

11 year period:

·         Residential inventory peaked in 2012, at 340 homes for sale, and has continually declined each year since. Current residential inventory levels are at only 36% (121 homes) of the 2012 level, a significant decline.

·       Condominium inventory peaked in 2010, with 265 condominiums on the market. The current level of 46 condominiums for sale is only 17% of the 2010 inventory.

·       Land inventory also peaked in 2010, at 610 lots for sale. First quarter 2019 inventory is the only segment of the real estate market with increasing inventories, currently at 82% (501 lots) of the 2010 inventory levels.

Residential Sales & 2019 Predictions

With the exception of 2017 (Irma Maria Hurricanes), the actual number of homes sold annually has exceeded the prediction based on 1^st quarter sales. However, it will be difficult to sell 204 homes when there are only 121 homes listed for sale and average days on the market of 10 months.

With the exception of 2009 through 2011, the 1^st quarter average sales price was a fairly accurate predictor of the annual home sales price. The 2019, 1^st quarter average sales price predicts a $100,000 increase in average homes sale price, from $329,272 for 2018 to $429,671 for 2019.

Here is the prediction for 2019 overall:

·         Total number of homes sold will be fewer than predicted, around 120, representing about a 40% decreased from total number of homes sold during 2018.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $400,000 range.

Condominium Sales & 2019 Predictions

This is a much smaller market, with just a few units built since the 1980s. It is more difficult to identify trends, because the sample is significantly smaller.

Beginning in 2014, there have been more than 100 condominium sales annually on St Croix. This level of sales will be difficult to sustain, with only 46 condominiums for sale and an average days on the market of 7 months.

1^st quarter average sale price has, in most cases, overestimated the average annual condominium sales price.

Here is the prediction for 2019 overall:

·         Total number of condominiums sold will be in the 80 condo range. Put another way, approximately twice as many condos as are currently listed for sale (46) should sell in 2019.

·         Average sales price will most likely be in the $180,000 range.

Land Sales & 2019 Predictions

Both predicted and actual number of lots sold are trending in the right direction, at last! A sign of market recovery!

Since 2014, the average lot sales price has consistently been in the $70,000 range. With the exception of 2017 (Irma Maria), predications based on 1^st quarter land sales prices for this period have been accurate.

Here is the prediction for 2019 overall:

·         Total number of lots sold will be about 120, similar to 2018.

·         The 2019 average lot sales price will be in the $70,000 range, similar to the previous 5 years.

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

March 2019

Home Sales

St Thomas vs St Croix

A 16 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         Over the 16 year period, more homes sold every year on St Croix than on St Thomas.

·         During 2018, more homes sold on both St Thomas (133) and St Croix (207) than had sold during any of the previous 15 years.

·         Over the 16 year period, the fewest number of homes sold on St Croix (88) was during 2012, the fewest number of home sold on St Thomas (53) was during 2011.

·         During 2018, 74 more homes were sold on St Croix, compared to St Thomas.

·         Compared to 2017, 45 more homes were sold on St Thomas during 2018 and 51 more homes were sold on St Croix during 2018.

Average Sales Price

·         At the beginning of this 16 year period (2003), average sales prices for St Thomas and St Croix were nearly identical, at an average of $415,823.

·         For the past 15 years (since 2004), the annual average home sales price on St Thomas has exceeded that of St Croix.

·         For 2018, the average St Thomas homes price was 28% higher, at $533,800, than the 2003 average sales price. The average annual home sales price on St Croix for 2018 was 21% lower, at $329,272, than the 2003 average sales price.

·         For 2018, the average sale price of a home on St Croix ($329,272) was 62% of the averages sales price of a home on St Thomas ($533,800).  

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         This measurement is a combination of total homes sold multiplied by average sales price; it gives the best overview of annual market performance.

·         During this 16 year period, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix market during six years: 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018.

·         During 2018, the total St Thomas residential market exceeded the total St Croix residential market by about $3 Million.  

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San MartinTeam Manager

February 2019

The St Croix Real Estate Cycle

A 16 Year Look

Total Number of Properties Sold

·         More homes sold on St Croix during 2018 than were sold during any of the previous 15 years! The next highest number of homes sold was 188 during 2006, the height of the real estate boom.

·         During 2018, 111 condominiums sold on St Croix, very similar numbers to the previous 4 years. Nearly twice as many condos sold during 2005 (208 condos). The fewest condos sold in 2012, when only 34 condominiums sold.

·         There were 119 lots sales in 2018, the highest number of lots sold on St Croix since 2009.

Average Sales Price

·         The average 2018 home sales price ($329,559) was $83,880 lower than the 2003 average home sales price of $413,439. The only lower average home sales price during the 16 year period was in 2013 ($319,459).

·         The 2018 average condominium sales price ($196,971) is $52,148 higher than the average condo price in 2003 ($144,823). The 2018 average condo sale price is similar to the average condominium sales price for the previous three years.

·         The average 2018 lot sales price ($68,045) is $23,270 lower than the average lot sale price for 2003 ($91,315). Over the 16 year period, only 2013 saw a lower average lot sales price ($50,290).

Total Market in Millions of Dollars

·         The 2018 total residential market ($67.9 million) was about $5 million higher than the 2017 total residential market ($62.8 million) and about $4 million lower than the total 2003 residential market ($71.9 million).

·         The 2018 total condominium market ($21.9 million) was $4.2 million higher than the total 2017 condominium market ($17.7 million) and $1.6 million higher than the total 2003 condo market of $20.3 million.

·         The 2018 total land market ($8.1 million) exceed the previous year by $1.6 million. But the total land market is still $9 million below our total land market of 16 years ago ($17.1 million) and $33.2 million below the height of the market during this 16 year period (2006 with a total land market of $41.3 million).

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

January 2019

7 Year St Croix Home Sales Price Trends

The average sales price of a home on St Croix decreased by $63,061 over the 7 year period; this is a 16% decrease.

Total number of homes sold increased 130% (116 homes) since 2012.

All areas of the island did not perform the same.

East End B

Far East End

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 31% ($210,979).  

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 4 homes compared to 7 years ago;

12 homes sold in 2012, 16 homes sold in 2018.

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 50% ($432,185) from $859,500 for 2012 to $427,315 for 2018.

Nearly 5 times as many homes sold in 2018 (48) compared to 7 years ago, when 10 homes sold.

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 59% ($119,518), from $202,367 for 2012 to $321,885 for 2018.

The number of homes sold in a year increased by 9 homes,  

from 15 home sales in 2012 to 24 home sales in 2018.

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 13% ($31,995) from $242,003 for 2012 to $273,998 for 2018.

The number of homes sold in a year has doubled since 2012, from 22 homes sold in 2012 to 45 home sales in 2018.

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 22% ($101,794), from $458,576 for 2012 to $560,370 for 2018.

The number of homes sold in a year is unchanged from 2012; 13 homes sales closed in both 2012 and 2018.

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 44% ($41,506), from $94,750 for 2012 to $136,256 for 2018.

More than 4 times as many homes closed in 2018 (9 home sales), compared to 2012 (2 home sales).

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home decreased 13% ($33,100), from $256,000 for 2012 to $223,500 for 2018.

More than twice as many homes sold during 2018 (13 home sales) as compared to

 2012 (5 home sales).

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Compared to 7 years ago, the average sales price of a home increased 15% ($30,563), from $203,500 for 2012 to $234,063 for 2018.

Three times as many homes sold during 2018 (30 home sales) than during 2012

(10 home sales).

Observations

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island consistently exceed the

island wide “average” home sales price:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Northside A & B

Average home sales prices in three areas of the island are consistently much lower than the island wide “average” home sales price:

·         King

·         Prince

·         West End

Center island average home sales prices are about “average”:

·         Company

·         Queen

More homes sold in all quarters during 20187, when compared to 2012, except for Northside A & B, where the same number of homes sold as did 7 years ago (13).

Compared to 2017, the island wide average home sale price decreased 16%.

These quarters experienced decreased average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         Queen

·         Northside A  & B

·         King

Compared to 2012, these quarters had higher average home sales prices:

·         Company

·         Queen

·         Northside A & B

·         King

·         West End

Compared to 2012, these quarters had lower average home sales prices:

·         East End B

·         East End A

·         Prince

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

December 2108

Inventory Level Trends

Current Annual supply represents the number of years it will take at the current rate of sales to sell all the properties listed in a specific area (Quarter) of St Croix.

[Active Listings + Pending Listings] /

Number of Listings Sold During the Previous 12 Months

For example:

In November 2018, there were 23 active and 4 pending home sales in East End B, with 16 home sales in the previous 12 months, for a 1.7 year supply of homes for sale

[23 + 4] / 16 = 1.7 Years or 20 months

East End B

Far East End

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, home inventory decreased by 1 year and average sales price is 46% ($410,533) lower

(from $888,908 to $478,385)

Compared to last year, average time on the market increased by 9.6 months; average sales price decreased 28% (from $668,759 to $478,385)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 23 months (from 2.6 years to 0.7 years); average sales price decreased by 35%

(from $370,846 to $241,246)

Compared to last year, average time on the market decreased by about 5 months;

average sales price decreased by 5% (from $253,785 to $241,246)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory levels are unchanged at 8.2 years;

average sales price decreased 10% (from $79,929 to $72,308)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 3.5 years;

 average sales price decreased 6% (from $77,138 to $72,308)

East End A

Christiansted East to Coakley Bay

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, home inventory decreased by nearly 2 years;

 average home sale price increased by 41% (from $307,597 to $434,085)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by about 10 months;

average sales price increased 21% (from $357,604 to $434,085)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory has decreased 2.7 years (from 3 years to 0.3 years);

average condominium sales price decreased 1% (from $242,556 to $240,244)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 2 years,

to less than a 4 month supply;

average sales price increased 58% (from $152,129 to $240,244)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory is about the same at 5.1 years;

average lot sales price increased by 61% (from $54,421 to $87,433)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 8 months;

average lot sales price decreased 14% (from $101,464 to $87,433)

Company

Christiansted West to the East Side of Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 6 years;

average home sales price increased 14% (from $275,571 to $314,009)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 2 months;

 average home sales price increased 14% (from $275,274 to $314,009)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 18 months (from 2.3 years to 0.8 years);

average sales price increased 22% (from $124,992 to $153,172)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory is unchanged at about 10 months; average sales price has increased 8% (from $142,067 to $153,172)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory increased by 2 years

(from 3.8 years to 5.8 years);

average sales price increased 170% (from $66,433 to $179,580)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 11 months,

 while average sales price increased 74% (from $103,000 to $179,580)

Queen

Constitution Hill West to La Reine, includes southwest

Judiths Fancy

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 22 months

(from 2.9 years to 1.1 years);

average sales priced decreased 38% (from $427,342 to $265,994)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 1.5 years (17 months);

average sales price decreased 32% (from $390,012 to $265,994)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by more than 6 years (from 6.8 years to 7 months);

average condominium sales price increased 14% (from $102,250 to $116,673)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 2 months;

 average sales price increased 8% (from $108,263 to $116,673)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory decreased by 12.5 years

(from 16.2 years to 3.6 years);

average lot sales price decreased 3% (from $61,000 to $59,357)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by nearly 3 years;

 the average lot sales price decreased 12% (from $67,314 to $59,357)

Northside A & B

North Shore from North Judiths Fancy to Hamms Bluff

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 2 years;

average home sales price decreased 3% (from $592,312 to $575,818)

Compared to last year, residential inventory increased by 6 months;

 average home sales price decreased 9% (from $632,294 to $575,818)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 3.7 years (from 4.7 years to 1 year);

average sales price decreased 52% (from $440,000 to $212,400)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 1 year;

average sales price decreased 42% (from $369,167 to $212,400)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory decreased by 11 years

(from 14 years to 3 years);

average lot sales price increased 32% (from $59,333 to $78,542)

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 3 years;

average lot sales price increased 13% (from $69,333 to $78,542)

King

South Shore from La Reine West to UVI

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory decreased by 2 years 

(from 4 years to 1.9 years);

average home sales price decreased 45% (from $247,800 to $135,644)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 5 years

(from 7 years to 1.9 years);

average residential sales price decreased 31% (from $196,667 to $135,644)

Condominium

            There are no condominium complexes in King Quarter

Vacant Land

7 years ago, no land sales were reported in King Quarter during the 12 month period ending November 2011.

Compared to last year, land inventory decreased by 4 years

(from 7.5 years to 3.6 years);

average lot sales price increased 36% (from $20,500 to $27,940)

Prince

South Shore from UVI West to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory by 1 year

(from 2.6 years to 1.7 years);

average residential sales price decreased 9% (from $239,519 to $217,227)

Compared to last year, residential inventory is unchanged at 1.7 years;

average residential sales price increased 4% (from $208,115 to $217,227)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 2.8 years (from 3.7 years to 0.9 years);

average condominium sales price decreased 28% (from $288,333 to $208,129)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory decreased by 4 years

(from 5 years to 0.9 years);

average condominium sale price increased 30% (from $160,000 to $208,129)

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory decreased by 6 years

(from 9.3 years to 3.4 years);

average lot sales price decreased 34% (from $50,714 to $33,375)

Compared to last year, land inventory is unchanged at 3.4 years;

average lot sales price increased 30% (from $25,690 to $33,375)

West End

South Shore, South from Mahogany Road,

East to Williams Delight

Residential

Compared to 7 years ago, residential inventory decreased by more than 2 years

(from 2.9 years to 0.7 years);

average home sale price increased 53% (from $157,512 to $241,535)

Compared to last year, residential inventory decreased by 17 months

(from 2.1 years to 0.7 years);

average home sale price increased 36% (from $177,647 to $241,535)

Condominium

            Compared to 7 years ago, condominium inventory decreased by 1.5 years (from 2.3 years to 0.8 years);

average condominium sale price increased 5% (from $146,250 to $153,375)

Compared to last year, condominium inventory increased by 2 months;

average condominium sales price is unchanged at $153,375.

Vacant Land

Compared to 7 years ago, land inventory decreased 2 years

(from 10.9 years to 8.8years);

average lot sales price increased 119% (from $32,222 to $70,727)

Compared to last year, land inventory increased by 3.3 years

(from 12.1 years to 8.8 years);

average lot sales price increased 118% (from $22,214 to $70,727)

Information is from MLS and deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

Prepared by:

Julie San Martin

Team Manager

November 2018

Which St Croix Price Ranges are Selling?

First 10 months of 2014, 2105, 2016, 2017, and 2018

Residential

2014

134 home sales closed January through October; there were 308 homes for sale

2.3 sellers for every buyer

2015

111 home sales closed January through October; there were 273 homes for sale

2.5 sellers for every buyer